Poll: Most Would Give U.N. Weapons Inspectors More Time to Search Iraq
Analysis By Gary Langer
Jan. 28
— Public support for attacking Iraq has stabilized, but with continued compunctions and a go-slow flag: Before the United States moves, two-thirds of Americans favor giving U.N. weapons inspectors the "few more months" they seek to do their jobs.
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Bottom-line support for an eventual U.S. attack steadied in this poll at 61 percent after losing some ground last week. And 54 percent support an invasion with ground troops. But, as has long been the case, support falls to 44 percent if it means acting without U.N. approval, and to 38 percent if it means a high-casualty ground war.
Moreover, despite the administration's often-voiced impatience, most Americans are in no rush. The public by a 2-1 margin, 64-33 percent, favors giving the inspectors a few more months to search for evidence of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in Iraq.
Among other signs of the public's go-slow posture:
Sixty-four percent say it's more important for the United States to win international support for attacking Iraq, even if that delays action, than to move quickly without such support.
Sixty percent say they'd like to see George W. Bush present more evidence against Iraq.
And 54 percent say they're more concerned the administration will move too quickly, rather than not quickly enough, a number that's been steady during the last four months. (Like many of these results, this view is a highly partisan one.)
On Iraq: Go-Slow Indicators
Inspectors Should Get More Time
64%
U.S. Should Gain International Support
64%
Would Like More Evidence
60%
Concerned Bush Will Move Too Fast
54%
This ABCNEWS poll was conducted Monday night, after U.N. inspectors gave their progress report to the U.N. Security Council. Continuing inspections is a central issue, with the United States saying that they've gone on long enough, and that Iraq is not cooperating.
Bush is expected to lay out his case on Iraq in his State of the Union address tonight.
Some results are positive for Bush: His approval rating for handling the Iraq situation has recovered to 57 percent, up seven points from last week and back where it's been, otherwise steadily, since September.
Bush also maintains a mighty 72 percent approval rating for handling the U.S. campaign against terrorism — the wellspring of his support since Sept. 11, 2001.
His overall job approval rating, at 59 percent, has stabilized after falling seven points from December to January amid worsening economic views. But the economy is still a significant challenge to his fortunes, and only 47 percent approve of how he's handling it.
Support for Attacking Iraq
Favor Military Action
61%
Favor Even if U.N. Opposes
44%
Support Ground War
54%
Support High-Casualty Ground War
30%
At the same time, it still appears that Bush has made just half his case on Iraq. The vast majority of Americans, 81 percent, do think Iraq poses a threat to the United States — a critical component of public support for war.
At the same time, to many the danger looks more clear than present. Considerably fewer Americans, 44 percent, see Iraq as an "immediate" threat. That's fueling the public's go-slow preference.
Also there's been growth in the minority view that the administration's been overstating the threat Iraq poses to the United States: Last September 23 percent thought it was overstated; now 32 percent think so, up nine points. However, 25 percent think the administration, even today, is understating the threat.
Views of Threat, Evidence Affect Support for Military Action
There's division on the burden of proof as well. Fifty percent say the burden should be on Iraq to prove that it does not have weapons of mass destruction. But 44 percent say the burden should be on the United States to prove that Iraq does have such weapons.
Views of the threat, and the evidence of it, are very important factors in support for military action. Among people who see Iraq as an immediate threat, 77 percent support military action against it, 70 percent support a ground war, and 50 percent support a high-casualty ground war. Among those who see it as a threat, but not an immediate one, overall support declines to 57 percent; for a ground war, 48 percent; and for a ground war with high casualties, 33 percent.
Similarly, support for action ranges from 90 percent of those who say Bush has presented enough evidence to 44 percent among those who'd like to see more. And it's 71 percent among those who say the burden of proof is on Iraq, compared to 51 percent who say the burden is on the United States to prove that Iraq does have banned weapons.
Support for attacking Iraq, and approval of Bush's handling of the situation, are notably lower than they were for his father at the start of the Persian Gulf War 12 years ago. Three days before the United States went to war with Iraq on Jan. 16, 1991, then-President Bush's approval for handling the situation was 68 percent, support for going to war with Iraq was 69 percent, and 66 percent said the United States had done enough to seek a diplomatic solution. (Table below.)
Of course, the situation was different in 1990-1 in several ways. "Proof" wasn't needed — Iraq had occupied Kuwait — and the United Nations was aboard.
As noted, many of these views are highly partisan. Bush's overall job approval rating is a nearly unanimous 90 percent among Republicans, falling to 54 percent among independents and 39 percent among Democrats. (By contrast, 60 percent
of Democrats approve specifically of Bush's work on terrorism.)
Support for military action against Iraq, similarly, ranges from 85 percent of Republicans to 54 percent of independents and 48 percent of Democrats. As if often the case with military action, support is also considerably higher among men (69 percent) than it is among women (54 percent.)
Methodology
This ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 27, 2003, among a random national sample of 504 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.
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Sixty-four percent say it's more important for the United States to win international support for attacking Iraq, even if that delays action, than to move quickly without such support. 
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