Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

More votes have come in, but Spartz continues to hold a small but meaningful advantage over Goodrich in the the 5th District GOP primary. With 62 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz has 38 percent to Goodrich's 32 percent. The vote shares across the district's different counties do not differ dramatically, so Goodrich is going to need some notable shifts from what we've seen so far to catch Spartz. Thing is, he and Spartz are from the same area of the district. In the state legislature, he represents central Hamilton County, including its county seat of Noblesville, which is also where Spartz lives. So he can't count on that part of the district to come in big for him to overtake Spartz, although Hamilton County is his strongest place tonight. But he still trails Spartz there 38 percent to 36 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

It's worth noting that Braun is doing something rare: seeking to become governor as a member of the U.S. Senate. In 2021, SmartPolitics found that just 21 sitting or former U.S. senators had been elected governor while 153 sitting or former governors had been elected or appointed to the Senate. This isn't necessarily surprising: After all, a senator has six-year terms and no term limits, while governors in 48 states have four-year terms (two years in New Hampshire and Vermont) and often do have term limits.

I took a look at the six sitting senators who ran for governor from 1990 to 2024, and I found that Braun's primary vote share (a little under 40 percent) is worse than any among this small group — in part because he arguably has more significant competition than the others faced, including Indiana's current lieutenant governor. The senator who won the lowest percentage prior to Braun was Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski, who won 70 percent in the 2002 GOP primary for Alaska's governorship. After Murkowski won that November, he became governor and appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to fill his vacant former Senate seat, which she still holds today. The elder Murkowski became extremely unpopular, however, and lost the 2006 GOP primary for governor to Sarah Palin, the former chair of the state's Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

The other four sitting senators seeking the governorship in this period all won at least 80 percent in their primaries: Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas (2010), Jon Corzine of New Jersey (2005), Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho (1998) and Pete Wilson of California (1990).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

ABC News reports that state Sen. Mark Messmer is projected to win the crowded GOP primary in Indiana's 8th District, which is currently held by Rep. Larry Buschon. Messmer defeated former Rep. John Hostettler and several other candidates in a race that attracted significant outside spending.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Indianapolis’s Marion County is reporting votes now in Indiana’s 6th, too. And according to the AP, Shreve is beating Speedy there 38 percent to 29 percent, likely cutting off any chance for the more conservative Speedy to prevail.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538