New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins

The Republican primary to replace Curtis in Utah's 3rd District is far more unsettled than the Senate race. In the absence of any polls, fundraising numbers make this look like a two-person race between trampoline baron Case Lawrence and Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird. Lawrence, who founded the indoor trampoline park chain Sky Zone, has brought in $2.8 million ($2.5 million of which was self-funded) and has styled himself as an optimistic problem-solver opposed to hardline tactics like government shutdowns. By contrast, Bird, who loaned himself $1.0 million of the $1.2 million he's raised, has used more partisan language and has pledged to "tie the hands of Congress" unless it balances the budget.

Three other candidates, though, could still be factors despite being underfunded. State Sen. Mike Kennedy has the backing of conservative Sen. Mike Lee and, while he's raised only $587,000, he has raised more from individual donors than any other candidate. Romney, meanwhile, is supporting his nephew-in-law, former Utah County GOP Chair Stewart Peay. And state Auditor John Dougall is running as the race's only explicit anti-Trump candidate.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Kaleigh, tonight could be a bad night for Trump endorsees. One (Staggs) is already the underdog to win, and a second (Burns) is now in real danger of losing in South Carolina. And some of his other endorsees, like Williams, aren't shoo-ins either …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Trump has endorsed 18 candidates in Republican primaries tonight, though 12 are incumbents. Trump's track record of picking winners has been very strong this primary season — so far, only one candidate he endorsed for Congress or governor races has lost her primary: Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner in New Jersey's Senate race. But Trump often pads his numbers by endorsing candidates who are locks to win, and tonight he's made a few riskier calls that might lower his batting average.

Consider Colorado's 5th District, around Colorado Springs in the middle of the state. In the race to replace Lamborn, Trump has endorsed Williams over Crank. As I wrote earlier, Crank has the backing of traditional GOP groups that have spent millions opposing Williams, so Trump may have his money on the dark horse in this race.

A similar showdown is happening in Utah for Romney's seat. Trump is backing Staggs, but Curtis seems favored to win the GOP nomination.

I'll be tracking all of these races, and more, tonight to see where Trump's endorsement track record lands.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Utah may be safely Republican, but the MAGA faction of the party is looking to pick up seats from the traditional Republican faction in Tuesday's primaries. And the biggest prize of all is the state's open U.S. Senate seat, currently held by anti-Trump Sen. Mitt Romney.

The front-runner to replace Romney is Rep. John Curtis, whose temperament — and attitude toward Trump — are closest to Romney's. Although he hasn't taken a high-profile stand against Trump like voting for impeachment, Curtis declined to endorse Trump during this year's presidential primaries and has avoided commenting on Trump's legal issues. Another tell: Though Romney hasn't made an endorsement, much of the incumbent's political operation is behind Curtis, who is known on Capitol Hill for being the rare Republican to talk about climate change and for owning 300 pairs of quirky dress socks.

Curtis faces three opponents who are, to varying degrees, more enthusiastic about Trump. Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson has raised the most money ($2.0 million from donors, $3.0 million from himself), but his efforts to strike a happy medium between moderate and MAGA (he introduced a resolution to pay tribute to Trump shortly after his second impeachment but also blocked an effort to censure Romney for voting to convict; he endorsed Trump for president, but only after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out) may end up pleasing no one. Meanwhile, businessman Jason Walton has vocally defended Trump and is well funded thanks to a $2.5 million loan to his own campaign, but Trump himself opted to support underfunded Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs instead.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538