Poll: Convention Boosts Confidence — At Least Among Republicans

N E W  Y O R K, Sept. 8, 2004 -- — Fresh off their convention, consumer confidence among Republicans jumped to its best level in nearly four years, helping to pull the ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index out of a recent lull.

The ABC/Money index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, up four points from last week. After losing five points throughout August, it’s about back to where it was in July, and just above its average in weekly polls since December 1985.

Rosier economic ratings by Republicans are largely responsible for the gain. The index among Republicans is +47, up 10 points from last week to its best since just after the last presidential election. In contrast, the index is essentially flat among Democrats (up three points to an index of -31) and independents (down two to an index of -24).

The index among Democrats gained eight points just after their convention in July, mitigated by losses among Republicans and independents that week. This is not a persistent effect; in 1992, an election in which the economy played a prominent role, consumer confidence among political partisans was little changed after each convention. This year, though, political partisanship is displaying a stronger-than-usual interplay with economic views.

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Interviews for this poll were conducted during the last four weeks, with about one-tenth of the total interviews conducted during the Labor Day weekend. Polling on a holiday weekend can be less reliable because fewer people may be reachable at home.Historically, however, movement in the ABC/Money index after Labor Day very closely matches the average change in any given week. That suggests this week’s change is unrelated to the holiday and, since it occurred among Republicans, has more to do with their convention.

INDEX — The ABC/Money index is composed of ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate. This week, 40 percent of Americans say the economy’s in good shape, 60 percent say their own finances are OK and 39 percent call it a good time to buy things. All ratings are at or slightly above average.