Confidence in a Trough
N E W Y O R K, April 2 -- Consumer confidence stayed in a trough this week, near its lowest in nine years — neither substantively damaged, nor improved, by the war in Iraq.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index stands at -26 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared to -28 last week. It's been at or below -25 for the last four weeks straight, a level of negativity unseen since December 1993.
The war, though, does not look to be having a direct impact on confidence; after dropping back in advance of the hostilities, it now looks essentially flat. That matches its trend at the start of the 1991 Gulf War — the index was -40 the week before the war began, and stayed about there (-39 to -35) during the seven weeks of fighting.
Just 22 percent of Americans now rate the national economy positively, compared to an average of 41 percent in 17 years of weekly polling. Thirty-four percent say it's a good time to buy things and 55 percent rate their own finances positively, each much closer to its long-term average.
This poll is based on a four-week rolling average; today's report includes two weeks' worth of interviews conducted after the start of the war with Iraq, plus interviews from the two previous weeks.
In addition to this weekly index of current economic sentiment, the ABC/Money poll measures expectations of the economy's future direction separately, on a monthly basis. Economic pessimism climbed in March to its worst since 1992.
TREND — The ABC/Money index peaked at +38 in January 2000 and averaged +29 that year, its best ever. It cratered to -50 in February 1992 and averaged -44 that year, its worst ever. Last year, its worst since 1996, the index averaged -11. So far this year it's averaged -24. Its 17-year average is -9.
GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +7 among people in higher-income households compared to -53 in the lowest, -15 among college graduates while -38 among high-school dropouts, -21 among whites but -49 among blacks and -12 among men while -37 among women. Confidence is better in the West — now -18 there, compared to -32 in the East and -31 in the Midwest.
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