Bruising week for Bolivia's President Paz as scandal and setbacks test his presidency
Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has had a bad week
LA PAZ, Bolivia -- In a sign of how things have been going for Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz lately, being forced to fire his economy minister on Friday was not the worst news of his week.
Over seven days, Paz has been besieged on multiple fronts, challenging his capacity and weakening his already fragile political position.
His main congressional ally broke with his party, fracturing support for his agenda as he struggles to pull Bolivia away from nearly two decades of one-party socialist rule. An abrupt fuel price hike threatened to reignite public unrest. And his influential adviser was arrested over the shooting of a woman who claims to have evidence of corruption inside his government.
“These are not easy times for the country,” Paz said on Thursday.
After a dizzying rise to power last year, Paz has spent his nine months in office growing accustomed to hard times.
Just six of the 15 ministers he originally appointed remain in their posts after a succession of political ruptures, corruption scandals and street protests. His partnership with Vice President Edman Lara — whose populist appeal helped Paz win last year's election — has rapidly deteriorated into open hostility. His efforts to shore up Bolivia’s scarce fuel supplies backfired when contaminated gasoline damaged more than 10,000 vehicles and led to the arrest of his ex-hydrocarbons minister. The seat of his government came under siege for almost eight weeks as dynamite-wielding protesters demanded his resignation.
Paz weathered it all. But analysts say the latest blows could pose his greatest challenge yet.
Here's a brief review of the week's damage in Bolivia:
Paz on Friday dismissed Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza, the architect of his government’s pro-market overhaul, days after Congress voted to force Espinoza out.
Lawmakers seized on a scandal surrounding Espinoza’s purchase of a luxury car and his failure to attend a congressional hearing about the economy to channel their mounting frustration over Bolivia’s stubborn inflation and chronic shortages of fuel and foreign currency reserves.
Prosecutors on Monday opened a criminal investigation into allegations that he falsified documents and misrepresented his income in connection with his purchase of an Audi Q4 for $5,000 — far below market value. He has attributed the discrepancy to a clerical error and denied wrongdoing.
Paz initially slammed the congressional vote as unconstitutional and insisted Espinoza would remain in office. But he soon backed down, exposing his weakness in Congress after the center-right National Unity party, a key legislative ally, broke with him last week over his reliance on presidential decrees.
“The vote on Espinoza showed the country what had until then been unclear: the true balance of power,” said Veronica Rocha, a Bolivian political analyst. “That balance is unfavorable to the government, which is now dependent on what other parties and lawmakers do.”
Espinoza's dismissal deprives Paz’s economic rescue effort of its chief strategist just as he needs Congress to approve a $1.9 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund, unlock a $200 million World Bank loan and pass legislation to bring dollars into Bolivia as discontent simmers over the pain of his fiscal adjustment.
After his government slashed long-standing generous fuel subsidies last year, driving up prices for ordinary Bolivians, it raised the price of diesel for bulk purchases by 84% this week, infuriating farmers and prompting calls for a mass strike.
“He's gotten some victories with the IMF deal, at least in principle, and with other multilateral loans,” said Casey Cagley, a senior adviser at Red Telescope Global, a Seattle-based strategic advisory firm, who studies Bolivia. “But that hasn’t translated into help with affordability or any significant reform.”
The week’s most explosive development came Tuesday, when Bolivian police arrested Fernando Cerimedo, an Argentine political strategist with close ties to Paz who has run digital strategy for right-wing leaders across the region including Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Prosecutors charged Cerimedo with attempted femicide after two men disguised as delivery workers shot his former romantic partner, Bolivian lawyer Nadia Beller, three times outside a hotel. From her hospital bed, Beller, 33, accused Cerimedo of orchestrating the attack to silence her because she has evidence that she says implicates him and people close to Paz in corruption.
Cerimedo denied involvement in the attack.
A medical report that Beller shared with The Associated Press documented wounds to her breast, arm, neck and shoulders, including a shattered bone requiring surgery, and said she was four to six weeks pregnant.
Prosecutors then raided four properties linked to Cerimedo after Beller posted photos of drawers stuffed with cash. They reported seizing more than 500,000 bolivianos — roughly $44,000 — along with undisclosed amounts of dollars and euros. Investigators also confiscated equipment they described as a “bot farm,” an automated network of fake social media accounts.
“This case could shake the government, so they need to respond to these allegations,” Senator José Manuel Ormachea told reporters from Congress on Tuesday. “Otherwise, this chaos will leave them hanging by a thread.”
Paz’s government downplayed Cerimedo's influence, saying he was “a very important adviser during the campaign,” who is now "consulted from time to time.”
Paz's detractors in government, including Vice President Lara, disputed that account, describing the consultant as a powerful, shadowy figure who controlled communications and pushed government appointments.
“Paz may survive all of this,” Cagley said of the week's political setbacks. "But it’s going to be very, very bumpy."
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DeBre reported from Buenos Aires, Argentina.
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