Measles cases in 2026 are set to surpass last year's total. Here's why
Last year saw the highest number of measles cases in more than 30 years.
The number of reported measles cases in the United States this year is soon set to surpass the total reported for all of last year.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows the U.S. has reported 2,231 cases as of July 9, which is just 58 shy of the 2,289 cases reported for the entirety of 2025.
Previously, the 2025 total was the highest number of cases seen in more than 30 years, and some public health specialists believe the U.S. is on track to lose the elimination status it earned in 2000.
The specialists told ABC News that there are several reasons for the U.S. breaking measles case records for the second year in a row, including declining vaccination rates, people not fearing the measles virus, a loss of trust in public health institutions and a perceived lack of clear guidance and communication from the nation's top public health officials.
"A world leading public health triumph, the elimination of measles in the United States, which was a beacon to the rest of the world, showing that this actually could be done, is eroding, and we are trying to turn back the clock as a society to the bad old days, I'm afraid," Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, told ABC News.
Not fearing measles
In the decade before the measles vaccine became available, the CDC estimates that 3 to 4 million in the U.S. were sickened by measles every year, about 48,000 were hospitalized and about 400 to 500 people died. About 1,000 people suffer encephalitis every year.
In 1971, the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine became available and, in 1989, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Academy of Family Physicians recommended that children receive a second MMR dose.
By 2000, annual recorded cases had fallen to just 85, and measles was declared eliminated, meaning it was without continuous spread for at least 12 months.
The CDC recommends two doses of the MMR vaccine. One dose is 93% effective, and two doses are 97% effective against measles, the CDC says.
However, CDC data show vaccination rates have been lagging in recent years. During the 2024-2025 school year, 92.5% of kindergartners received the MMR vaccine, according to data. This is lower than the 92.7% seen in the previous school year and the 95.2% seen in the 2019-2020 school year, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and an attending physician in the division of infectious diseases at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, told ABC News that vaccines are a victim of their own success.
Because vaccines were so effective at eliminating measles, many members of the public no longer remember a time when measles was ubiquitous, he said. In turn, some people no longer fear the illness and some focus has shifted to the perceived risks of the vaccines themselves, leading to a decline in vaccination rates.
"We don't fear these diseases," Offit said. "Not only do [people] not see these diseases, they didn't grow up with these diseases. So, they're just not scared of the diseases. ... I've had residents in our hospital come up and tell me when we had admitted a case of measles; they'd never seen a case with measles before in their life. That's the problem. You don't fear the disease."
Declining trust in public health
Schaffner said another reason has been a loss of trust in public health and health care professionals since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The CDC and other federal public health agencies faced criticism for mixed messaging and unclear guidance during the pandemic, as well as for failing to communicate that guidance was often changing because the pandemic was a fast-evolving situation.
"There's been in our society a real diminution of trust in authority, authority of all kinds," Schaffner said, "And so, when professional organizations and governmental organizations such as the CDC recommend vaccines universally, such as measles vaccines, that's greeted with skepticism rather than, when I was growing up, those kinds of pronouncements from professional groups and the CDC would be embraced by my parents and say, 'That's the right thing to do.'"
The rise in distrust has been coupled with a rise in unverified or untrue claims about measles spreading online and on social media, Schaffner said. This includes claims that measles is a harmless virus.
"Measles was a universal infection of children growing up, but that does not mean it was a trivial infection," Schaffner said. "Quite to the contrary, from the point of view of individual children, it often made them miserable for a week and a half."
He went on, "Even more importantly, it is associated with all kinds of complications, middle ear infections, which require more medical care, and pneumonia. This virus could get down into your bronchial tubes and lungs, which causes difficulty breathing, requiring hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and resulting in some of the deaths."
Perceived lack of CDC response
As the number of measles cases began rising last year, fueled by a fast-growing outbreak in Texas, both the CDC and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faced criticism for their alleged silence.
A December 2025 analysis from Johns Hopkins University published in the journal Vaccine looked at posts from the CDC's official Facebook, Instagram and X accounts related to measles and the MMR vaccine as well as posts from major news outlets.
The analysis found that between Jan. 1, 2025, and Aug. 1, 2025, the CDC posted just 10 times across the three platforms, a decrease from an average of 45.8 posts over the same period from 2021 to 2024, despite fewer measles cases during those years.
Meanwhile, Kennedy did not endorse the MMR vaccine until an April 6, 2025, X post after meeting with the families of two school-aged children who died of measles in Texas.
"The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine," he wrote.
However, in a second social media post that evening, Kennedy said he had met with two physicians who have "treated and healed" about 300 children infected with measles in the Mennonite community with aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin.
Budesonide is an inhaled steroid and clarithromycin is an antibiotic used to treat bacterial infections. Doctors say there’s no evidence that shows either medication is an effective treatment for measles.
ABC News has reached out to the Department of Health and Human Services for a comment.
Offit believes Kennedy could have used his position to more emphatically recommend MMR vaccines.
"A healthy six- and eight-year-old girl died of measles in this country, the first child death of measles in this country in more than 20 years," Offit said. "And what did [Kennedy] do? Nothing. He didn't use his considerable platform or famous name and get out there and say, 'Vaccinate your children.'"
While Kennedy has claimed the HHS promotes MMR vaccine, public health specialists say he has also promulgated misinformation about the vaccine's safety and efficacy.
Schaffner said that by promoting vaccine education in middle and high school curriculums about vaccines, it could help combat the misinformation they are presented with on social media and elsewhere.
"We have to go back and reformulate the educational curriculum in middle school and high school so that they learn what is measles, what is diphtheria, what is polio, and why do we have vaccines, and why do we vaccinate all of our children?" Schaffner said. "We need to introduce that into the general curriculum of children across the country. The high schoolers of today are tomorrow's parents."
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