Infectious Diseases, 2031: New Viral, Bacterial Diseases Will Develop
Nov. 1, 2006 — -- The ABC News Medical Unit asked doctors and medical experts in a wide variety of specialties about advancements in their fields in the next 25 years. The following is the future of infectious diseases.
Regarding infectious diseases, we should realize that "the only constant is change."
The combination of increasing global travel, evolving technology, human exposure to animals and the natural capacity for microbes to mutate, all intertwine to create an environment promoting the evolution and spread of new human viral and bacterial diseases.
Most of the new human diseases recognized over the past two decades have resulted from animal viruses that have developed the genetic capacity to create disease and be transmitted among humans. SARS and AIDS are prime examples.
The frequency of such events will escalate as people increasingly travel about the world and delve more deeply into heretofore "exotic" locales. Air travel will disseminate such new infections rapidly. Fortunately, new technology will quickly identify any new infections, but international collaboration will be key to their effective control.
Antibiotic resistance will get even worse, leading to a greater need for emphasis on prevention of disease.
New technologies will produce safer and more effective vaccines. However, they will be relatively expensive.
The United States will need to commit to providing the benefits of prevention to its entire population and, through the United Nations, to extend such benefits to the entire global village. Disease abroad will threaten our population at home, so a global vision is required.
Clearly, an active public health infrastructure at the local, state and federal levels must be fostered. The infectious disease research effort must be sustained and enhanced. New infectious diseases are the norm; we must be capable of dealing with this constant change.
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