China's bid for lunar water launches Sunday as the new space race heats up
The country is gearing up to launch a moon mission in the coming days.
When NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman speaks about the future of American space exploration, there's a good chance he's going to mention a new space race. Isaacman hasn't been shy about reminding the public and policymakers that the United States is competing with China to return to the moon and stay for good.
"We are very much in a space race right now and the Chinese are moving at incredible speeds and they are certainly capable of doing what the Soviets were not during the first space race. The Chinese will land their taikonauts on the moon. There's no question. The question is, will the United States return before them?" Isaacman said on CBS' Face the Nation last month. "I think the answer is yes."
As early as Sunday ET (Monday in China), the Chinese will attempt their next big step in their effort to beat the U.S. to the moon when they launch the uncrewed Chang'E-7 mission.
While the exact landing location hasn't been publicly announced, a paper published in the National Science Review by a team of Chinese scientists reports that China is aiming to explore an area near the Shackleton crater at the lunar South Pole. This coveted yet challenging region on the moon's surface contains water ice and other resources necessary to sustain a permanent settlement.
It's an ambitious mission. China is sending an orbiter that will circle the moon for two or three months before sending a lander, rover and a first-of-its-kind thruster-powered "hopping" probe down to the surface, according to Asa Stahl, science editor at The Planetary Society.
"It's going to use rocket propulsion to fly into one of these permanently shadowed craters where it can look for signs of water ice and characterize it a bit, and then it also has these little legs, so it'll land on these sort of jointed actuators, these legs that will cushion the landing, and then also let it walk a little bit away from where it lands, drill a sample, and then it'll launch back into a sunnier part of the moon, and maybe do that multiple times if all goes according to plan," Stahl told ABC News.
Scientists already know there's ice on the moon. Stahl noted that they now need to find out how much exists, where it's located, how hard it will be to extract, and its quality. Chang'E-7 is looking to answer those questions.
"If water ice, for example, is very widespread and common in these shadowed regions, then there'll be more real estate that's worth being near. There'll be more to go around, so to speak. But if there are very few places, and there might be, then you could imagine it potentially matters who gets there first if they're not willing to share. That, of course, remains to be seen," Stahl said.
Water is essential for establishing a permanent settlement on the moon, as it's needed to sustain inhabitants at a base, help build things on-site and potentially produce rocket fuel. Both China and the U.S. need to find an abundant supply of it on the moon to achieve their lunar ambitions.
"If it gets there and lands in a great spot and finds there's water ice here, but there's indication that it's pretty hard to get to, and maybe there wouldn't be so much water ice accessible in other places, then that turns up the temperature on what is already perceived to be a competition," said Stahl.
China has high hopes for the Chang'E-7 mission. In the same National Science Review paper, the lead author, who is affiliated with China's National Space Science Center, wrote that the vehicles and their scientific instruments are expected to help the country "achieve major original scientific advances" in the lunar south pole, "laying a foundation for the establishment of a long-term, continuously operating comprehensive lunar scientific research station in the future."
And that's exactly what NASA is also hoping to do in the next decade. Its $20 billion moon base would be built in the same region over about the next decade in three phases, potentially requiring nearly 80 rocket launches and more than 70 moon landings.
"The clock is running in this great‑power competition, and success or failure will be measured in months, not years," Isaacman said when announcing plans for the moon base back in March.
At the time, he spoke of China's progress in sending taikonauts to the moon and eventually building its own base.
"They might be early, and recent history says we might be late," Isaacman said. "But this time, the goal is not flags and footprints. This time, the goal is to stay."
The lunar south pole is a particularly difficult part of the moon's surface to navigate, let alone to build a settlement on.
"Extreme and highly variable temperatures, abrasive lunar dust, rugged terrain, and difficult lighting conditions all present major challenges for sustained surface operations," NASA said of the region.
Stahl said that, based on China's successful track record of sending probes to the moon, he believes they are up to the challenge.
"None of the previous Chang'e missions have had a major failure. They've all been quite successful," Stahl said. "These past missions have not only done things that NASA's done before, but in some cases, they've exceeded what's been done before. So I think the Chinese lunar program has shown that it is capable of this sort of thing."
If the U.S. and China are in a new space race, it's not for bragging rights about who can get there first. The U.S. already beat the world to the moon back in the 1960s and early 70s. But Stahl noted that there's still "a lot of prestige in space exploration" and that landing people on the moon is so technologically challenging that he says it can be seen as "a vindication of your entire political-economic model, as well as a representation of your abilities as a superpower"
"It is going to mark a major step forward in what we know about the moon, especially the region around the South Pole. At the same time, for those who see space exploration as an arena where the U.S. and China are competing, like this administration, Chang'E-7 is a reminder of what dedicated support for your space program gets you," Stahl said.
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