Iran war could spark a global jet fuel crisis ahead of summer travel: Experts
The International Energy Agency director said Europe has a six-week supply left.
The ongoing war in Iran that is choking off the global supply of oil is now threatening to cause a global jet fuel crisis just as the summer travel season gets ready to begin, international energy experts said.
The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) sounded the alarm on Thursday when he told the Associated Press that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so [of] jet fuel left."
Fatih Birol, the IEA executive director, told the AP that airlines around the globe could be facing "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced" if the war, which has put a stranglehold on shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, drags on.
The U.S. Navy has now established a blockade of Iranian ports in an attempt to stop tankers linked to Iran from transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz -- where, in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20% of liquid petroleum consumed worldwide passed through.
"In the past, there was a group called Dire Straits.' It's a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy," Birol said. "And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world."
Birol's comments came a day after Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), wrote in a blog post that global economic growth this year is expected to be only 3.1%, while headline inflation will rise to 4.4%.
In 2025, the global economic growth was 3.4%, according to the IMF. Before the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, which began on Feb. 28, the IMF had projected the global economy growing at 3.3% for 2026.
"A longer shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and further damage to drilling and refining facilities would disrupt the global economy more deeply and for longer," Gourinchas wrote. "In an adverse scenario, assuming a sharper increase in energy prices this year coupled with rising inflation expectations and some tightening of financial conditions, growth falls to 2.5% this year and inflation rises to 5.4%."
Rico Luman, senior economist for transport, logistics and automotive for ING, told ABC News on Thursday that Birol's statement to the AP is a clear signal that oil stocks around the world are declining.
Luman said countries in Asia have already been running low on jet fuel.
"When it comes to Asia, prices trade now 25% higher than in Europe," said Luman. "Because Asia is much more dependent on the Middle East, they've run low on stocks already."
As for Europe, Luman said, "it could potentially have a big impact" on the upcoming holiday travel season.
"There's no constraint or a real shortage physically at the moment, but it's looming," said Luman, adding that some European airlines have already started cutting flights because of high jet fuel prices.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), an airline trade association, the price of jet fuel has more than doubled to $197 a barrel since the war in Iran broke out.
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines announced on Thursday that it is cancelling 160 flights, evenly divided between departures and arrivals, at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, which the airline said "are currently no longer financially viable to operate" due to rising jet fuel prices.
The German airline Lufthansa also announced on Thursday that it is shutting down its regional subsidiary airline, CityLine, and permanently removing 27 aircraft from its flight program this week because of rising kerosene or jet fuel prices. Lufthansa said it also plans to retire its last four Airbus A340-600 planes in October and ground two Boeing 747-400s.
"The package for accelerated implementation of fleet capacity measures is unavoidable in light of the sharply increased kerosene costs and geopolitical instability," Till Streichert, CEO and CFO of Lufthansa Group, said in a statement.
Airline trade group and industry officials told ABC News that there are no immediate concerns of a jet fuel shortage in the United States, which transports very little oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but the European jet fuel shortage could still impact U.S. air carriers and travelers.
"If an airport doesn’t have enough fuel for a flight to the U.S., it's possible the airline may schedule an intermediate stop at an airport that does have adequate fuel supplies," Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst, said. "This is highly unusual and very disruptive, because it means the return trip will take longer and be less convenient."
Harteveldt said consumers could end up paying higher ticket prices, noting that American, Delta and United airlines all serve secondary European cities.
"Depending on the route, the airline, its union contracts, and any guidelines on crew time issued by its safety agency (such as the FAA), it's possible the carrier may need to have additional crew available to operate the flight to the U.S.," Harteveldt said. "That, of course, could eat into the airline's crew staffing availability and add to its costs, which the airline will inevitably seek to recover through higher fares."
While U.S. air carriers have not announced any changes to their summer schedules to Europe, Harteveldt said that could change if confidence about fuel supplies erodes.
"If the fuel becomes prohibitively expensive, or if operating a route becomes uneconomic, they may reduce the planned number of flights or even cancel a flight or route entirely," Harteveldt said. "The result of all this for travelers, unfortunately, is continued uncertainty."
Harteveldt added, "Anyone who is planning to travel abroad this summer, especially to Europe or Asia, should check regularly the status of their reservations for any changes."
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