October was warmest on record globally as El Nino intensifies: Report

Last month was the warmest October on record for global temperatures and the third consecutive month to exceed the warming threshold established by the Paris Agreement, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The European agency says 2026 is shaping up to be the second warmest year on record, with a 20% chance of tying or exceeding 2024 for the warmest year. And it is "virtually certain" to exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius (34.7 degrees Fahrenheit) average threshold, according to Copernicus.

The average global temperature for the four years between 2023 and 2026 is also expected to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.

"October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures. An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities, while 2026 is on track to become the second calendar year above 1.5°C," Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, said in a statement.

She noted that the four-year average highlighted "how sustained this period of global warmth has become."

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In October, Copernicus noted that sea surface temperatures continued to run "exceptionally high" and that the average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions was the highest on record for October, breaking a previous record from 2023.

In the tropical Pacific, Copernicus says El Nino continues to strengthen, with the sea surface temperature in the region that scientists use as the primary benchmark for monitoring and defining the climate pattern reaching an all-time high. That temperature now exceeds the peaks recorded during previous very strong El Nino events.

The new records come as world leaders, climate negotiators, scientists and nonprofits head to Turkey for the start of the annual United Nations climate conference. COP31 is expected to focus on implementation of previous commitments into results.

Like last year, the Trump administration will not send an official U.S. delegation, despite the U.S. being the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter behind China.