ABCNEWS Analysis: Al Qaeda's October Messages to America
By Christopher Isham -- Oct. 30, 2004 -- The release of the new bin Laden tape to al Jazeera on Friday and the release one week earlier to ABCNEWS of a tape from a man described as an American member of al Qaeda, called "Azzam the American," were clearly designed to send a message to all Americans immediately before the U.S. elections.
"Azzam" delivers a harsh denunciation of American policies, pronounces all Americans guilty and rants that our "streets will run with blood." Bin Laden also attacks U.S. policies and President Bush, defending terrorism as a response to American injustice, but stopping short of issuing an explicit threat. Some of his statements could even be viewed as conciliatory and his demeanor is quite measured in comparison to previous appearances. He has abandoned his military fatigues and the AK-47 at his side for a more formal podium that seems designed to portray him as a statesman, rather than a mass murderer. Side by side, the two tapes have a bad-cop, good-cop aspect to them.
The principal question intelligence analysts are working on is whether the tapes constitute a sign that another major terrorist attack in the U.S. is imminent, perhaps before the elections or on Election Day? Historically, some of bin Laden's statements have been followed by major terrorist attacks, (e.g. bin Laden's May 1998 interview with ABCNEWS was followed by the August 7 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Africa). Some of his statements, however, have been followed by no such attacks. At present, the U.S. has no credible intelligence that such an attack is in the works.
Over the summer, the CIA received intelligence from two sources that al Qaeda was planning an attack in the U.S. before the November 2 elections. One of those sources, a detainee, however has since been discredited since he failed a polygraph examination. The other source is of untested credibility. Neither source has been able to provide any specifics of such a plot. Analysts also believe that arrests in August of cells in Pakistan and the UK did substantial damage to al Qaeda's operational capability making it difficult, if not impossible for the network to launch large scale attacks in the United States. Following this line of thought, some analysts believe that the new tapes represent an admission that al Qaeda does not have the capability to attack now and therefore must resort to an elaborate propaganda play.
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