Tensions over Yemen chokepoint threaten to ignite another theater of US-Iran war
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen handles some 10% of maritime trade.
LONDON -- The U.S. war with Iran could yet become a conflict defined by two maritime chokepoints, analysts have warned, with the under-fire regime in Tehran seeking to leverage its regional "Axis of Resistance" allies to throttle international trade and raise the economic costs of the American campaign.
This week, the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen -- who since 2014 have been locked in a conflict with the internationally-recognized Yemeni government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia -- announced the start of a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, following weeks of escalating tensions over planned flights between Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital Sanaa and Iran.
The embargo puts into focus Saudi Arabia's western coast along the Red Sea, which is bordered at its southern end by the Bab el-Mandeb Strait -- only around 18 miles wide at its narrowest point. On its eastern side is southwestern Yemen, parts of which are controlled by Houthi forces.
The Bab el-Mandeb handles an estimated 10% to 12% of international maritime trade, according to analysts, with the Suez Canal at its northern end a vital conduit for global trade.
Amid the U.S.-Iran war and the subsequent disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's western ports have become key alternatives for the country's oil exports and other commercial cargo.
Particularly key is the post of Yanbu, which sits at the end of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, and from which there has been a significant uptick in oil exports since the start of the conflict, according to maritime intelligence company Kpler.
The Houthis -- which the U.S. has said are armed, trained and funded by Tehran -- now have that Saudi outlet back in their sights.
On Wednesday, the Houthis claimed to have attacked their first targets under the new embargo -- two Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea. "The armed forces will continue their naval operations against the Saudi enemy," the Houthis said in a statement.
'This is a nightmare'
Even before the Houthi attack on the Saudi tankers on Wednesday, traffic through the strait was already beginning to decline. On Wednesday, Kpler said that Tuesday's traffic transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to 29 versus Monday, a 34% decline.
One shipping fleet company executive, who has seven tankers in the region, told ABC News on Tuesday that shipping companies had received messages from the Houthis warning them not to transit to Saudi ports. "Many ship owners are now unwilling to transit through Bab el-Mandeb," said the executive, who asked not to be named so they could speak candidly.
"We deal with uncertainty on a daily basis but the level of uncertainty now is unprecedented," they added. "Especially for the seafarers, this is a nightmare. This is a huge concern for the world because if the Bab el-Mandeb closes while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil will go to $150 [per barrel]," the executive said.
President Donald Trump downplayed concerns over the chokepoint on Tuesday.
"It might happen, but we take care of things. If something like that happens, we take care of it. You know, we've done that with the Houthis before, and we haven't heard from them in a while since we did what we did," Trump said, referring to last year's Operation Rough Rider, which saw nearly two months of intense U.S. strikes on Houthi targets.
On Thursday, following the latest Houthi attack, Trump said the U.S. "will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a surrogate and/or proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves, who I am very disappointed with in that they have, until now, acted very professionally and smart."
The Houthis have previously shown their willingness and ability to target shipping in the Red Sea, including in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and subsequent Israeli military operation in Gaza, during which the Houthis targeted commercial ships they claimed were linked to Israel.
Analysts who spoke with ABC News said the Houthis have the capacity to force a contraction of maritime activity in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
"It's not difficult, shutting down Bab el-Mandeb," Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center think tank in Yemen, told ABC News. "One or two incidents are enough to close it, or at least to decrease navigation radically."
Nawaf Obaid, a senior research fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College London and a former adviser to the Saudi government, predicted a swift Saudi response: airstrikes on missile systems, launch sites and Houthi naval assets first, followed by wider attacks on Houthi bases and storage facilities.
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry on Monday condemned the Houthi announcement of an embargo, saying that the kingdom "will take all necessary measures to protect its ships in accordance with international law."
If the conflagration is sustained, Obaid added, the Saudis and their Yemeni allies may also look to launch new ground operations against Houthi-held areas.
"They will create trouble, that's for sure," Obaid said of the Houthis. "But how much of it is sustainable with sustained and sequenced Saudi airstrikes? It's going to be hard for them to sustain this on even a midterm basis."
Riyadh, Obaid said, is prepared for the confrontation. "The Saudis have had a decade to get ready for it," he said. "They've learned from their mistakes."
"Military-wise, they are ready. And I don't think that the Houthis nor the Iranians have realized that," Obaid said. "I don't think they realize that it doesn't end well for them."
The Yemeni theater
The escalation in Yemen can be seen as another theater in the U.S. war with Iran, the analysts who spoke to ABC News said.
The Houthis refrained from engaging Saudi and Western targets during the first round of the conflict that began in February. Instead, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia directly, as did Iran-aligned militias in Iraq. Saudi Arabia reportedly responded by launching its own strikes in both Iran and Iraq.
"They don't like to use all of their leverage at the same time," al-Deen said of Tehran. The stage is set for escalation, she added: "I think the mood in Iran is more radical. And this suits the mood among the Houthis, which is always radical."
"They want to escalate to increase the cost of the war on everyone. This is the Iranian strategy now: to go to the maximum," al-Deen said.
The U.S. and its allies often describe the Houthis as an Iranian proxy force, taking orders directly from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Though the extent of Houthi autonomy from Iran is unclear, the relationship between them is close and their actions coordinated.
"The relationship between the Houthis and Iran is a win-win relationship," al-Deen said. "The Houthis can live without Iranian support inside of Yemen, but this will weaken them -- heavily will weaken them."
The Houthi action, analysts have suggested, appears intended to win the group leverage over Saudi Arabia in an ongoing diplomatic process to end the civil war in Yemen -- now in its thirteenth year -- enhance the Houthi regional footprint and provide Tehran leverage in its ongoing conflict with the U.S.
The latest developments add further complexity to a fraught domestic picture inside Yemen. Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has tightened its control over the anti-Houthi bloc by forcing the United Arab Emirates to abandon its role in the conflict.
The UAE had been backing a southern separatist bloc called the Southern Transitional Council, which was part of the Presidential Leadership Council heading the Saudi-backed government. But sudden military gains by the STC in late 2025 prompted the Saudis to launch airstrikes on STC forces, claim the disbanding of the STC, deploy its troops to STC-held areas and force the UAE's withdrawal from Yemen.
Amr al-Bidh, a senior STC official, told ABC News during an interview in London that the in-fighting opened a door for both the Houthis and Iran.
"I think now they're in a weaker position because of weakening the anti-Houthi camp," al-Bidh said, blaming Riyadh for what he called "bad policy."
Both al-Deen and Obaid, though, said the ejection of the UAE and the collapse of the STC had strengthened Riyadh's hand, giving the Saudis more control over the anti-Houthi government forces and territories.
"We are ready for any efforts -- international or regional -- when it comes to the Houthis," al-Bidh said. "In the end, the threat to Bab el-Mandeb is a threat to everyone." The Trump administration, he added, is "leaving it to Saudi Arabia to deal with the Yemeni file."
Al-Bidh said any resurgence of fighting in Yemen should be seen as part of the Iran conflict.
"What they have done is not based on the internal dynamic between the Yemeni government and the Houthis, or the Saudis and the Houthis -- it's a bigger picture," he said.
"When the right time comes, they're definitely going to use their leverage to the benefit of Iran," he said of the Houthis.
-ABC News' Desiree Adib contributed to this report.
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