The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Feb. 17—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):
—7:00 am: Gov. Howard Dean appears on CBS' "Early Show," CNN and NBC's "Today Show"—8:00 am: Sen. John Kerry receives the endorsement of the Alliance for Economic Justice with Rep. Richard Gephardt, Milwaukee, Wis.—8:30 am: The American League of Lobbyists hosts "Campaign 2004: Gearing Up for a Whole New Ballgame," Washington D.C.—8:30 am: Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson speaks at the Health Leadership Education Conference about the Medicare bill, Washington, D.C.—9:30 am: Sen. John Edwards greets voters at Brandy Street Pharmacy, Milwaukee, Wis.—11:00 am: FBI Director Robert Mueller speaks at the Foreign Press Center, Washington, D.C.—11:30 am: Mrs. Bush speaks at Bentonville High School on education initiatives, Bentonville, Ark.—11:30 am: Sen. Edwards greets voters at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wis.—12:00 pm: Treasury Secretary John Snow, Commerce Secretary Don Evans, and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao tour and speak at the Spokane Intercollegiate Research and Technology Institute Foundation, Spokane, Wash.—12:00 pm: Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Gregory Mankiw speaks at the National Economists Club conference, Washington, D.C.—1:00 pm: Mrs. Bush attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser reception, Rogers, Ark.—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL—1:30 pm: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's communications director holds briefing on first 100 days, Sacramento—1:35 pm: President Bush speaks to military personnel, Fort Polk, La.—2:00 pm: House of Representatives convenes for legislative business—2:50 pm: President Bush has lunch with National Guardsmen of the 39th Brigade Combat Team, Fort Polk, La. —4:30 pm: Secretaries Snow, Evans and Chao hold a roundtable discussion with business women at the Red Lion Hotel, Richland, Wash.—5:00 pm: Rep. Dennis Kucinich visits the black studies department and attends a rally at Cleveland State University, Cleveland, Ohio—6:00 pm: Polls close in Kentucky 06—6:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends the National Legacy Awards at Cleveland State, Cleveland, Ohio—7:00 pm: Mrs. Bush attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser reception, Newport Beach, Calif.—7:25 pm: President Bush returns to the White House—8:00 pm: Secretaries Snow, Evans and Chao visit the El Porton Restaurant, Yakima, Wash.—8:30 pm: Gov. Howard Dean attends a primary night party at the Concourse Hotel, Madison, Wis.—8:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a primary night party at the Marriott West, Madison, Wis.—8:30 pm: Sen. Edwards attends a primary night party at Serb Hall, Milwaukee, Wis.—9:00 pm: Polls close in Wisconsin—11:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a "meet the candidate" event at HiFh Club, Cleveland, Ohio
NEWS SUMMARY
"This is only going to end when somebody gets hurt" is something our parents said to break up the horseplay.
But it could also apply to this year's general election presidential campaign.
Please spare us the "the most negative," "the longest," "the most expensive" — we don't mind these things, and, in fact, we think a vibrant democracy can handle some flying elbows and 8 months worth of scrutiny of its presidential candidates.
But take 1,000 Googling monkeys and give them 1,000 pairs of scissors to match their 1,000 sleek PCs, and you get The Note's very patented "Ten Political Dynamics to Watch" ® clip-n-save — in order of current importance:
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1. Defining John Kerry — it gets the "Judy Keen" treatment on the front page of USA Today today. Note the retro Mary Matalin quotes! LINK
2. The overlay of the map showing (manufacturing) job loses juxtaposed with the map of the battleground states — check out these ripped-from-the-headlines USA Today and Washington Post headlines: "Most Economists Credit Bush's Tax Cuts in Rebound" and "Economy May Work in Bush's Favor"
3. The ultimate decision of the FEC and the courts of the legality of the 527s' big spending.
4. What John Kerry can raise on the Internet and in the salons in the next 6 months.
5. Bin Laden's fate and the facts on the ground in Iraq.
6. A politically succesful end of the all-GOP-controlled congressional session, especially the appropriations process. And those energy and highway bills.
7. Does "they have not led, we will" resonate more in New York or Boston?
8. Can Teresa Vilmain turn her attention away from the birthday list long enough to target, target, target from a Wisconsin abode?
9. Can John Kerry explain his health care plan to ordinary Americans in a politically appealing way?
10. Andrea Mitchell and everyone else (soon to be) appearing big time on MSNBC for political coverage.
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By the sheerest of coincidences, the Washington Post 's Dan Balz subsumes nearly all ten items with the general election's first must read (See below.).
Hello, Wisconsin!
Your polls open as early as 8 am ET. They close at 9 pm.
In this general election battleground state, Senator John Kerry is looking to reaffirm his lead in the nomination fight by winning his 15th primary/caucus. Senator John Edwards is looking for as much evidence as possible that he can continue as a viable candidate through the early March contests. And Gov. Howard Dean hopes a last-minute surge by progressive Wisconsinites will save his movement, at least temporarily.
Will there be any candidate drop-outs in this news cycle or by the end of the week? Pending the results, only Dean seems a candidate to become a former candidate.
(WBAY in Green Bay Noted last night that with "the East Coast duo of Kerry and Kennedy leading the cheers, this Midwestern crowd waved on its support. Some told us they didn't start as Kerry supporters but they are tonight." LINK
All have claimed the mantle of the LaFollette legacy. They've expended most of their breath on taxes, trade and jobs and spent lots of time around liberal Madison.
The three (along with Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Rev. Al Sharpton) squared off in a debate Sunday night that produced little in the way of news, or fireworks. Edwards hit Kerry on trade, but once, and only indirectly. Dean seemed barely there, at times.
A Kerry-Edwards Super Tuesday clash — if it comes — will surely have a lot of NAFTA talk.
Seventy-two (72) delegates will be allocated. Delegates are apportioned both according to the vote in each congressional district (47) and statewide (25). Candidates must receive at least 15 percent (either within a congressional district or statewide) of the vote to be eligible to be apportioned delegates. (Wisconsin has 15 additional super delegates.)
A total of 2,161 delegate votes are needed to secure the Democratic nomination for president. To date, a little less than 25 percent of the available allocated delegates have been apportioned.
It's pronounced "Muh-wau-kee," by the way.
State officials project a total statewide turnout of 1.6 million. They did not disaggregate for Democrats.
The election will be administered by the state elections board and county, city and town clerks. Counties will use a mix of paper (945), optical scan (898), and lever machines (15) LINK
(The state has received a HAVA waiver to use the outdated machines while it updates its election procedures and processes.)
The primary is open to all registered voters regardless of party. Registration deadline is 10 days before an election, or at the polls with proof of at least ten-day residency.
Senator Kerry is in Wisconsin today. Senator Edwards is in Wisconsin today. Gov. Dean is in Wisconsin today.
Rep. Kucinich is in Ohio today.
President Bush is in Louisiana.
Mrs. Bush is in Arkansas and California.
ABC News Vote 2004: the delegate count:
As the Democratic nomination race heads to the dairy farms, college campuses, and sports bars of Wisconsin, here are the current totals in the ABC News Delegate Estimate.
Delegates so far (pledged delegates and superdelegates combined)*:
Kerry 560 (roughly 26% of the total delegates needed to secure the nomination)
Dean 186
Edwards 162
Sharpton 15
Kucinich 2
Delegates needed to win the nomination:
2,161
Delegates at stake today (Feb. 17): 72
John Kerry's huge victories in the Nevada and Washington, DC caucuses over the weekend allowed him to win nearly three-fourths of the 40 delegates at stake on Saturday.
Kerry is way out in front in the ABC News delegate estimate with 560 overall delegates.
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