After Virginians vote for new congressional map, Democrats and Republicans could be at a redistricting draw: ANALYSIS
The mid-decade redistricting effort could end in something of a wash.
The success of a redistricting ballot initiative in Virginia that will result in a new congressional map there likely favoring Democrats is the latest volley in an ongoing mid-decade redistricting battle between the two parties.
But whether there are any clear winners or losers at this juncture in the broader redistricting picture may be a little more complicated.
Where do things stand after the Virginia vote?
Six states redrew their congressional maps in 2025, breaking with the norms of redrawing once a decade after the release of census data, and Republicans appeared to have a higher amount of seats redrawn to benefit them.
The GOP netted five potentially favorable seats in Texas, one in North Carolina, and one in Missouri through politically-driven redistricting, encouraged by President Donald Trump. (Missouri's new map and a potential ballot initiative to overturn it are tied up in litigation.)
In Ohio, where the state legislature was forced to redraw the state's congressional map for separate reasons, Republicans and Democrats made a compromise where the GOP netted 2 favorable seats while not pushing through a redraw more detrimental to Democrats.
But in the midst of the Texas redistricting, Democrats in California fired back by successfully referring to the 2025 ballot a new map giving Democrats five potentially favorable seats -- and the map passed with over 60% of the vote. Elsewhere in the west, a court-ordered congressional map redraw in Utah gave the Democrats one new favorable seat.
If there was a mid-decade redistricting "scorecard" including the results of the Virginia vote, Republicans would have around nine possible new seats and Democrats would have around 10 -- giving Democrats a potential net gain of only one new seat through the redistricting, which means the back-and-forth on mid-decade redistricting could end in something of a wash.
Democrats could argue that's a win for them in and of itself, as Republican-led states usually have more leeway to redistrict and the redrawing spurred by Trump initially seemed like it would benefit the GOP.
What other states could still redistrict in 2026 or beyond?
Mid-decade redistricting in 2026, might still not be over, even after the Virginia vote.
Florida, for instance, is set to hold a special session next week that will include considering mid-decade redistricting. That could benefit Republicans, who already hold 20 out of the 28 congressional districts in Florida. However, legislators there face strict restrictions on drawing congressional maps for political reasons, based on the state's constitution.
(Democrats have also vowed to fight back, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries writing on Tuesday night, "If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats ... Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time.")
But with candidate filing deadlines passing or approaching in many states, it is likely too late for most other states to potentially redraw their maps in time for the 2026 midterms.
How might this all play out in the 2026 midterms?
Whether the redrawn districts flip the way their parties hope they will in the midterms is no sure bet.
Experts have pointed to how redrawing a district's lines can have unintended consequences -- such as inadvertently weakening a party's hold on another district, giving the other a stronger chance to flip it.
Other factors that could impact whether a party holds or flips it are also in play, including which candidates win their respective primaries and how robust their campaign operations are, party and political spending and campaigning, and voter enthusiasm and turnout in November's midterms.
Democrats have pointed to a string of wins or overperformances in off-cycle special elections as a sign they're well poised to flip the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterms. Republican-aligned groups such as MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's political operation, have amassed large war chests ahead of the midterms and say they'll be able to hold the chamber.
At the same time, if the redrawn districts mostly or all flip, as the parties hope they all do, then the battle for the U.S. House could come down to just a few districts -- and any of those redrawn districts could play a major role for which party wins the House.
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