Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace

As Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the U.N. Security Council Thursday the U.S. believes Russia plans to "manufacture a pretext" for an invasion of Ukraine, such as with false claims of violence by Ukrainians in the country, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv explicitly blamed Russia for the overnight shelling in Donbas in a series of tweets. 

"Russia's shelling of Stanytsia Luhanska in Ukrainian government-controlled territory in Donbas hit a kindergarten, injured two teachers, and knocked out power in the village," the Twitter statement said. "The aggressor in Donbas is clear - Russia."

The statement continued: "This attack, as with so many others, is a heinous Russian violation of the Minsk Agreements and again demonstrates Russia's disregard for Ukrainian civilians on both sides of the line of contact."

Ukraine has also blamed Russia-backed separatist forces for shelling the village controlled by Ukrainian government troops and hitting a kindergarten there early Thursday.

Russia-backed separatist authorities in eastern Ukraine have, in turn, accused the Ukrainian military of preparing for a full-scale offensive.

Blinken told world leaders to expect this and more, "claims of mass graves, staged drone strikes, a terrorist bombing, or chemical or biological weapons -- even the use of those dangerous weapons," and said that "Russian media have already begun to spread these false alarms."

The Russian mission to the U.N. circulated a letter overnight that it said included an investigation of atrocities committed by the Ukrainian government, alleging that Ukraine committed war crimes over the last eight years in the Donbas -- alarming U.S. officials, who believe it may be part of the false pretext for a Russian invasion they've publicly warned about for weeks.

"It's hard to draw any conclusion other than Russia plans to use today's U.N. Security Council meeting as part of an attempt to establish a pretext for a potential invasion, building upon disinformation and incendiary statements we've seen over recent weeks," a senior administration official told reporters Thursday morning. "Each of these allegations are categorically false."

As U.S. officials expected, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin, speaking ahead of Blinken at the U.N., blamed Ukraine for failing to implement the Minsk agreements, he said, and accusing it of atrocities against civilians in its eastern provinces.

-ABC News' Matt Seyler and Conor Finnegan

Secretary of State Antony Blinken closed his remarks to the U.N. Security Council meeting by challenging the Russian Federation to "announce today -- with no qualification of equivocation or deflection -- that Russia will not invade Ukraine, stated clearly stated plainly, to the world."

"And then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their various can hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table," he added.

Blinken laid out how the U.S. believes Russia will attack Ukraine -- but said he would welcome being wrong and for Russia to withdraw.

"Now, I'm mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out," he said, apparently referring to a similar address then-Secretary of State Colin Powell famously made to the Security Council presenting U.S. intelligence to justify the Iraq War. "But let me be clear, I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one," he said, citing allies that agree with U.S. assessments.

"If Russia doesn't invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong. That would be a far better outcome in the course we're currently on. And we'll gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us," Blinken said. 

He continued, "Russia can still make if there's any truth to his claim that is committed to diplomacy. Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this crisis"

Blinken also said that he sent a letter to Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier Thursday proposing that they meet next week in Europe following their talks in recent weeks "to discuss the steps that we can take to resolve this crisis without conflict" and that U.S. is also proposing meetings at the NATO Russia Council and the OSC Permanent Council. 

"These meetings can pave the way for a summit with key leaders in the context of de-escalation to reach understandings on our mutual security concerns," he added.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, changing plans at the last minute to speak at a U.N. Security Council meeting Thursday, implored the group to unite to address what he called "Russia's looming aggression against Ukraine."

"This crisis directly affects every member of this council and every country in the world because the basic principles that sustain peace and security principles that were enshrined in the wake of two World Wars, in a Cold War, are under threat: The principle that one country cannot change the borders of another by force. The principle that one country cannot dictate another's choices or policies, or with whom it will associate the principle of national sovereignty," he said.

Blinken repeated that the U.S. and Western allies do not see Russian troops drawing down on the ground, but that, "Our information indicates clearly that these forces, including ground troops, aircraft ships, are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days," he said.

He said that Russia is already taking steps "down the path to war," first with its plans to "manufacture a pretext for its attack."

"This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government. We don't know exactly what formula. It could be a fabricated so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia. The invented discovery of the mass grades. A staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake -- even a real attack -- using chemical weapons,” he said.

He said, then, the would see the "highest levels of the Russian government may theatrically convene emergency meetings to address the so-called crisis." 

"Next, the attack is planned to begin. Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyber attacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans," he said, reiterating the U.S. belief that Ukraine's capital Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people, is a target.

He added that the U.S. has intelligence "Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians."

"Let me be clear," Blinken said, "I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one."

In a written response on the discussion over Moscow's demands that NATO not expand, Russia said the U.S. has not given a "constructive reply" to Russia's demands and that Moscow might resort to "military-technical measures."

"We can acknowledge that the U.S. side did not give a constructive answer to the basic elements of a draft treaty with the U.S. on security guarantees, drawn up by the Russian side," the document given to the U.S. on Thursday and translated from Russian by Interfax said. "In the absence of the American side's willingness to negotiate firm and legally binding guarantees of our security by the U.S. and its allies, Russia will have to respond, including through implementing military-technical measures," it said.

As the West has warned of Russian misinformation serving as potential for a false flag pretext, the document from the Russian Federation accused the U.S. and allies of spin, instead.

"The package nature of Russian proposals has been ignored, from which 'convenient' topics have been deliberately chosen, which, in turn, are 'twisted' in the direction of creating advantages for the United States and its allies," the response said. 

"We propose to work together to develop a new 'security equation'," it added.

The U.S. government, at Russia's insistence, sent written responses to two draft treaties Moscow published demanding guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the military alliance pull back its infrastructure from Eastern European countries that joined after the Cold War. Washington rejected those guarantees as non-starters but offered to discuss some confidence-building measures.

-ABC News' Tanya Stukalova