Which states might redraw congressional maps in 2026, 2028 after Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling
The ruling could result in states redistricting every few years.
The bare-knuckle, partisan mid-decade redistricting battles that have occurred across the country over the past year and a half might become the new normal in the light of a landmark Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday that could impact congressional maps and minority representation nationwide.
The ruling in Louisiana v. Callais could result in states redistricting every few years, instead of every 10 after the release of census data.
But with many states' candidate filing deadlines having passed, it's not clear how many more congressional seats could be redrawn because of this ruling ahead of November's midterm elections -- although there could be Republican-controlled states that use the ruling to redistrict ahead of the 2028 elections, and Democratic-controlled ones that plan to respond.
Joshua Stockley, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana Monroe, said the country is already seeing "a domino effect" of redistricting, which the ruling could supercharge.
"I think Republicans and Democrats, both parties, are going to continue to try to create as many non-competitive or favored districts as they can until we get to a point where somebody steps in and says, 'Enough is enough,'" Stockley told ABC News. "That's going to require some sort of bipartisan compromise. And right now, I don't see any state that is in a position of bipartisan compromise."
So far, based on mid-decade redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections that was sparked by President Donald Trump encouraging Texas Republicans to pass a new congressional map, Republicans are favored to pick up 13 districts across five states, while Democrats are favored to pick up 10 districts across three states.
Also, some maps are tied up in or expected to face lawsuits.
Which states might redistrict in 2026?
Louisiana is set to try to redraw its congressional map, after Gov. Jeff Landry and state officials announced they'd postpone the state's House primaries set for May 16 -- without postponing other races, such as the state's Senate race. The move to suspend the election has already been challenged in court. Redrawing the map could allow Republicans to potentially flip up to two seats.
Tennessee may try to redistrict as well. Trump posted on his social media platform on Thursday that he spoke with Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who said he would work to redraw the state's Congressional maps in order to net anther GOP seat for Tennessee in the House of Representatives. Tennessee currently has eight Republicans and one Democrat in its congressional delegation.
Alabama, which has two Democrats in the House, could potentially change its map in the wake of the ruling. Secretary of State Wes Allen asked the Supreme Court on Thursday for immediate review of a dispute over its 2023 congressional map, which currently includes a court-ordered additional majority-minority district.
Alabama is seeking the same judgment that the Supreme Court granted to Louisiana, but it is not clear if or when the court would act on the request, whether it would grant it, or let it play out in lower courts.
Gov. Kay Ivey announced Friday a special session of the legislature to start on Monday in order to be ready to implement previously blocked maps if courts rule in the state's favor. Alabama is scheduled to hold primaries on May 19.
Some legislators in South Carolina have also called on the state to redraw its congressional map in 2026 to box out the state's one Democratic-held seat, although other state lawmakers have previously indicated this is unlikely.
What states might redistrict for the 2028 cycle?
The implications of the Supreme Court's decision on congressional maps could be felt more during House elections in 2028, when legislatures have had a chance to go through the process of mid-decade redistricting.
Some elected officials in Republican-controlled Georgia, for instance, have called on the state to redraw its map even with its own May 19 primaries rapidly approaching.
Georgia's Republicans Gov. Brian Kemp told ABC News on Friday that the state will not suspend its May 19 primary for new electoral maps since early voting is already underway. But he said new electoral maps will be required for 2028.
Still, one key race in 2026 may impact things: a Democratic win in Georgia's 2026 governor's race could be a check on redrawing the state's maps after 2026.
Democratic leaders in some other states have indicated they may want to try to counter Republican moves. The governors of New York and New Jersey, for instance, said they want to explore redistricting to counter the Republican efforts -- although procedural restrictions mean their legislatures would not be able to redraw the map before this year's midterms.
Voters in Democratic-run Colorado will potentially vote this November on a ballot initiative that, if passed, could allow that state to redistrict ahead of 2028.
"As many governors have already indicated, we will be prepared to respond in states like New York, Illinois and Maryland, as well as in Colorado, in advance of the 2028 election," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told POLITICO on Thursday.
An analysis from Fair Fight Action, the liberal advocacy group founded by former Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, determined that Democrats could flip as many as 22 congressional seats across seven states ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
The memo, obtained by ABC News and first reported by the New Republic, argues that Democrats in New York, Colorado, Maryland and Oregon already have the requisite control in state legislatures to create new maps, but that the party would need to flip at least one legislative chamber in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota this fall to redraw the maps in those states.
"Democrats must use every possible tool to fight back, and our analysis shows there is a real path: an aggressive blue-state response across at least seven states could neutralize the GOP power grab by 2028 – and doesn’t weaken Black and Brown Americans' voting power to get there," Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo said in a statement to ABC News.
Other impacts
There could be ramifications sooner than 2028 for state legislative maps that include state house, state senate and state supreme court districts, potentially impacting who voters -- including minority voters -- are represented by in their statehouses and state courts.
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves issued a proclamation last Friday calling a special session of the legislature for 21 days after Supreme Court's decision to consider redrawing the state supreme court districts.
Press Robinson, a Black activist from Louisiana who was involved with Louisiana v. Callais litigation, said earlier this week that the case is "going to affect elections at every single level of the political process."
"Judges, school board members, councilmen. Doesn't matter. It will affect them all," Robinson said.
ABC News' Halle Troadec, Hannah Demissie and Isabella Murray contributed to this report.
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