Trump is getting the Republican Party that he wants. But can he win in the midterms?
President Donald Trump has been showcasing his influence in Republican primaries, recently endorsing Ken Paxton in Texas
President Donald Trump is on a winning streak in Republican primaries, most recently endorsing Ken Paxton ahead of his Tuesday runoff victory over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas.
But Trump's tightening grip on his party could make it harder to win in the November midterms, when Republicans face a broader electorate that has soured on the president's second term and the economy.
The risk is compounded, Republican operatives say, by how cavalier the billionaire president has been in addressing Americans’ financial worries, which have been exacerbated by Trump's trade rollercoaster and his ongoing war against Iran.
Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, acknowledged the president’s approach is making things harder for his party.
“It’s going to be a tough fall unless things dramatically change,” Urban said.
He warned that Trump cannot afford a haphazard exit from the war with Iran to resolve a conflict that has created a chokehold on global oil supplies and driven gas prices higher for Americans.
“I think the president wants to help,” he said, but “you do not want to give the Iranians a win just because of the midterms.”
Not only are prices higher after Trump’s tariffs and his Iran war, but the president has repeatedly described affordability concerns as a “hoax.”
Trump mused that increases in gas prices — up more than 50% in the U.S. since Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran — amount to “peanuts.” He said he does not consider Americans’ personal finances “even a little bit” when mulling options in Iran, insisting that preventing the country from obtaining nuclear weapons is his only priority.
All of that comes as Trump badgers Congress to spend $1 billion on his White House ballroom project and allocate $1.8 billion to pay restitution to people who believe they were prosecuted for political purposes — potentially including those who violently attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
It’s a cascade that Republicans in every battleground House district, Senate election or statewide contest will have to navigate in the fall.
“You keep the House and Senate by having a message, by dealing with the issues voters are clearly complaining about,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic. “The administration has utterly failed to do this.”
It has been more than two weeks since the Republican National Committee distributed talking points to surrogates that mention the economy, according to messaging documents reviewed by The Associated Press.
The only talking points sent out last week focused on defending Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund.”
“Democrats and the fake-news media are deliberately ignoring the fact that this fund is not limited to Republicans or Trump supporters,” said the message on May 23.
Two weeks earlier, the RNC encouraged surrogates to praise the president and his party for “delivering lower costs.”
The messaging ignored the exploding cost of gas, but noted that the price of eggs, school supplies and butter was down significantly over last year.
“President Trump promised to lower prices, and he is doing just that,” the talking points said.
Republicans began Trump’s second presidency with a 220-215 advantage in the House. They’ve boosted their chances to hold the majority by redrawing congressional maps in several Republican-run states. But Democrats are still confident they can flip enough seats to reclaim a majority.
Republicans have a more significant 53-47 advantage in the Senate. However, leaders of both parties agree that control of the chamber is in play. Some Republicans blame Trump for backing candidates like Paxton, who has faced years of scandals and could prove more vulnerable in a race against Democratic nominee James Talarico in the fall.
Viet Shelton, a spokesman for House Democrats’ campaign committee, said Trump’s redistricting push shows that he understands his party’s troubles.
“They’ve given up on trying to win over voters fair and square, so they’re resorting to rigging the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression,” Shelton said.
Democratic advisers said Trump’s struggles have shifted the dynamics in multiple races. Their list of Republican-held House targets now includes many districts that Trump carried by double digits. In special elections and odd-year elections since Trump’s second inauguration, Democrats have consistently outperformed their 2024 results.
Voters can expect to see clips of Trump's comments on the economy featured in Democratic advertising this fall. However, party operatives said the broader strategy is to acknowledge the president's appeal as a populist but argue that he and his Republican loyalists have failed to deliver.
In U.S. House districts in Iowa, for example, that means emphasizing how tariffs have affected the farm economy and how the Iran war has increased the prices of diesel fuel and fertilizer. In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, that means talking about how Trump’s immigration crackdown has roiled the local economy in Latino communities.
Republican strategists are worried by Trump’s lack of focus on the economy — and the lack of transparency from Trump’s team about how it plans to deploy its massive campaign accounts.
The pro-Trump super PAC known as MAGA Inc. held more than $356 million at the end of April. Yet many Republican strategists say they’ve received no clear indication of how, where and when Trump’s team plans to spend the money, according to several operatives who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
They see one bright spot in James Blair, Trump's political general, leaving the White House to focus on the midterms.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the president’s strategy and confidence about the midterms.
Perhaps underscoring Republicans’ conundrum, Trump remains a fundraising juggernaut. He helped House Republicans rake in $36.8 million in a single fundraising dinner last month, a committee record.
Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Trump “puts House Republicans in the strongest possible position to defy history and win in November.”
Of course, a candidate must win the Republican nomination to even be around for the fall campaign.
“The president has chosen to be aggressive in endorsing candidates he believes are the best advocates for his agenda and have been loyal to him,” Republican campaign veteran Chip Lake said.
Lake is leading an independent expenditure effort on behalf of Georgia Republican Burt Jones, the Trump-endorsed candidate in a June 16 primary runoff for governor.
“It’s difficult, if not impossible to win a primary in today’s environment if the president is working against you,” Lake said. And whatever the general election consequences, he added, independents and moderates “make up a very tiny, even minuscule portion of Republican primaries.”
___ Barrow reported from Atlanta. Peoples reported from New York.
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