Flash flood emergency occurring in same Texas region as Camp Mystic tragedy

Texas Hill Country is often referred to as "Flash Flood Alley."

July 15, 2026, 6:27 PM

The region in Texas currently experiencing dangerous flash flooding is Texas Hill Country, the site of more than 100 flood deaths in July 2025, including dozens of girls at Camp Mystic.

There is growing concern about rapidly rising creeks and rivers across the area following hours of torrential rain.

Gov. Greg Abbott said in a press conference on Wednesday that disaster declarations have been made for 59 counties, with the possibility of more being added.

He said that more than 75 people have been rescued so far and that the expected rainfall from this storm could exceed 30 inches, more than 10 inches from what fell during last year's deadly floods.

Where the rain, flooding has been the worst so far

The National Weather Service issued a flash flood emergency warning for Boerne, located in Texas Hill Country about 55 miles southeast of Camp Mystic, on Wednesday afternoon, urging residents to seek higher ground immediately.

"This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION," the NWS warning stated. "SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!"

A rain gauge near Boerne measured 3.5 inches of rain within one hour Wednesday morning, according to the NWS. The Cibolo Creek rose 10 feet in just 90 minutes -- between 9:45 and 11:15 a.m. local time, and measured at a record-high level of more than 22 feet.

A flash flood emergency was also issued for D'Hanis, Texas, about 60 miles southwest of Boerne, where between 4 and 10 inches of rain have fallen, according to the NWS. The Seco Creek is rapidly rising, prompting local officials to advise those in flood-prone areas to move to higher ground immediately.

Intense rainfall began in parts of Texas Hill Country on Tuesday, where parts of Texas Hill Country received between 6 inches and 16 inches of rainfall in 24 hours.

The NWS had previously issued a high risk for flash flooding, a level 4 out of 4, for the same region on Wednesday due to a forecast of an additional 6 to 12 inches of rain.

A "high risk" is a rare occurrence. It's only issued about 4% of days -- it but accounts for around one-third of all flood-related fatalities and 80% of all flood-related damages, according to the National Weather Service.

Flash flood warnings continue this afternoon for Kerrville, Uvalde,and just north of San Antonio.

A truck sits submerged in flood waters at an intersection, July 15, 2026, in Boerne, Texas.
Darren Abate/AP Photo/Darren Abate

Between 4 and 12 inches of rain had fallen by noon Wednesday, and an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain were possible in the area. Flash flood warnings continue this afternoon for Kerrville, Uvalde, and just north of San Antonio.

Life-threatening flash flooding occurred at low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, according to the NWS.

In Uvalde County, about 100 miles southwest of Boerne, at least 25 rescues had occurred by 9 a.m. Additional rescues were underway Wednesday afternoon in North County, where the Leona River gauge has reached nearly 20 feet, according to the Uvalde Police Department.

When will the heavy rain, flooding risk end

The current round of heavy rain is expected to continue in the region until 8 p.m., forecasts show. Locally catastrophic flash flooding is possible for portions of U.S. 90 corridor, west of San Antonio -- including the southern Edwards Plateau -- and the Rio Grande.

The flood watch across Texas Hill Country remains in effect through Thursday.

The same area faces a level 3 of 4 risk for flash flooding on Thursday, with the heaviest rain expected between 2 a.m. and 4 p.m. Another round of heavy rain could occur Thursday night.

Isolated additional rain totals of more than a foot are possible through Thursday, forecasts show.

Flash Flood Threat Map
ABC News
Rain Potential Map
ABC News

Why Texas Hill Country is prone to flash flooding

Texas Hill Country is often referred to as "Flash Flood Alley," one of the most flood-prone regions in the U.S., because the weather and landscape in the south-central Texas allow for rapid flood events, according to the Texas Water Resources Institute (TWRI).

The "alley," which stretches from Dallas to San Antonio and encompasses the Colorado and Guadalupe River basins, is highly susceptible to dangerous flood events due to its steep terrain, shallow soil and repeated high rainfall events.

Much of the region is situated on a floodplain between tall hills, funneling any rainfall into rivers and creeks, causing them to rapidly rise. In addition, the clay soil does not easily absorb water and triggers high water runoff once wet, according to the Texas Water Resources Institute.

Major floods have occurred over nearly all sections of the Guadalupe River Basin, according to U.S. Geological river streamflow records dating back to the 1800s.

Debris is piled up at the entrance to Camp Mystic on July 07, 2025 in Hunt, Texas.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images

High rainfall intensities are a common occurrence because the Gulf provides an infinite source of moist air, as does the Pacific, which produces monsoonal moisture as well as cool air masses from the north that converge to produce extreme rainfall events.

Last year, more than 100 people died, including 25 girls at Camp Mystic, as a result of catastrophic flooding along the Guadalupe River during the Fourth of July weekend.

The torrential rain that turned the river into a raging wall of water was fueled by unique atmospheric conditions, meteorologists and climate scientists told ABC News last year.

Heavy rain combined with slow-moving thunderstorms caused the Guadalupe River to rise 26 feet in less than an hour, officials said.

ABC News' Kenton Gewecke and Melissa Griffin contributed to this report.

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