Lake Powell, nation's second-largest reservoir, hits record-low level
Lakes Powell and Mead supply water for a vast swath of the Southwest.
Less than two weeks after Lake Mead, the largest reservoir by capacity in the United States, hit a record low, Lake Powell, the country’s second-largest reservoir, has suffered the same fate.
On Saturday, Lake Powell's pool elevation dropped to 3,519.91 feet, breaking its previous record of 3,519.92 feet set in April 2023.
Federal water officials caution that the daily water level figure is "provisional and subject to revision" and the new record could be walked back considering its razor-thin margin. But even if Saturday's reading doesn't hold, the lake's downward trend means the actual record low is just days away.
"If you add the two of these reservoirs together, the last time the joint contents were this low was in 1957, before there even was a Lake Powell. These are truly unprecedented," Jack Schmidt, a senior research scientist and the director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University, told ABC News. "We are in completely new territory."
Lake Powell and Lake Mead store the vast majority of Colorado River water used to sustain cities and agriculture in Southern California, Arizona, Nevada, Mexico, as well as federally recognized tribes. Water from the lakes is also used to generate hydroelectric power and to ensure a steady, predictable flow of water downstream, smoothing the water supply during droughts and when snowpack in the Rocky Mountains is low.
Sharon Megdal, the director of the Water Resources Research Center (WRRC) at the University of Arizona, called the situation a "natural disaster" and compared it to a savings account. She said the demand for water acts like a withdrawal, and the drought and reduced snowpack limit the deposits you can pull from the savings when times are tough.
"What's really happened in this last year acutely is that the flows are so low and given how we've been operating the system, we're getting to these record lows that honestly were not anticipated as recently as a year ago, and so it's kind of a critical situation on the river," said Megdal. "It's appropriate to use the words critical, crisis because we haven't been there before since these two reservoirs had been filled."
While this year's El Nino may bring much-needed rain to the West, it won't be enough to replenish the lakes' water supplies, according to Megdal and Schmidt.
"It will take multiple years of good winters in terms of precipitation and snowmelt. We had a very good year in 2023. It would take multiple years, like 2023, to start filling the reservoir system, so one year won't do it," explained Megdal.
And Schmidt said there is a weak correlation between an El Nino and a significant snowpack in the Rockies. Add the impacts of climate change, which have resulted in warmer springs and drier soils that reduce runoff into the reservoirs, and average or above-average rainfall no longer guarantees equivalent runoff. The area is also losing snowpack due to sublimation, in which ice turns directly into vapor, and evaporation.
"Now there's lots of uncertainty, but [the Bureau of Reclamation's] most probable forecast right now is 75 percent of average [for water inflows into Lake Powell]. If that's what really happens, our crisis only deepens, only gets more significant, only gets even worse than it is. If we were to get an exceptional year, such as what we got in 2023, we remain in crisis," said Schmidt.
But that doesn't mean the water will stop flowing to people who need it. Megdal says that cutbacks so far have fallen on agriculture rather than municipal customers, and that even if cities are hit, most have other water supplies.
The cities in the West have also done a good job at reducing consumption even as they've grown, according to Schmidt. Both experts agree that if significant cuts in water use are necessary, it's the agriculture industry that will have to shoulder the burden.
"Fifty-five percent of all the water used in the Colorado River Basin is used to produce livestock feed, growing alfalfa and grass hay. If you take all the agricultural activities in the basin, about 70% of all the water used of the Colorado River is used for some agricultural activities," said Schmidt.
Schmidt said growing vegetables such as broccoli, tomatoes, onions and carrots that help feed the country during winter, makes a lot of sense and should continue, even if it requires supplemental water.
"But it is inevitable that summertime production of grass, hay, and alfalfa in extreme climates where there's lots of water loss due to evapotranspiration and exceptionally hot conditions, those uses might have to be cut back," said Schmidt.
"The savings in the cities are so great that, despite their population growth, they use less water today than they used to. We're going to need to have agriculture be much more efficient in its use of water, much more targeted in its decisions about what crops to grow, where and when," he added.
Megdal said that grass and hay production could impact grocery prices. "There's multiple ways people will feel impact. It may not be the reliability of water to your home, right? But it could be what you're paying in the supermarket and what our communities look like in terms of green spaces and open spaces," she said.
Schmidt said cutting back agricultural water use is not going to be easy. The industry holds the oldest water rights and unless the laws are changed, it would have to be compensated for any water it gives up.
"The West lives by a doctrine of first in time, first in right. The American West was settled first by agriculturalists, and only late in the game did the big cities come along," explained Schmidt.
Recently, the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency overseeing water management, announced its plan for managing the Colorado River when the current operating guidelines expire at the end of the year, but it didn't specify the size of the cuts. That decision is expected to come soon. The move came after Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming failed to reach an agreement on future water allocations after more than three years.
One thing that everyone agrees on is that when it comes to water in the West, business can't continue as usual.
"What we should be doing that we're not already doing is really looking at what curtailments or what cutbacks on the [water] demand side we can do, how quickly we can do them and what are the opportunities to substitute other water supplies," said Megdal.
For Schmidt, who has been studying these issues for decades, he says the region is in for "tough times" and that tough choices will have to be made. But he still believes there are solutions to be had.
"I guess I'm optimistic, but it's going to be a very painful process," added Schmidt.
- Dan Peck and Dan Manzo contributed to this report
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