Earth to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold within the next decade, UN report warns
Ten years after nearly every nation on the planet signed the historic Paris Agreement, a new United Nations report warns that the world is on track to officially breach the agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold within the next decade, triggering an escalation of climate change impacts worldwide.
On Tuesday, the UN Environment Programme published its annual Emissions Gap Report, warning that the average global temperature rise over multiple decades is likely to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold within the next decade, at least temporarily.
The report finds that even the most ambitious emissions cuts would only delay the onset of the overshoot, not prevent it entirely and that by the end of the century, the world is projected to face a global average temperature rise of between 2.3 and 2.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, depending on the pace and scale of mitigation efforts.
To stay on track for the Paris target, the report stated that global emissions would need to decrease by 40% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. To accomplish this, the authors are urging countries to accelerate investment in renewable energy, expedite the phaseout of fossil fuels and increase financial support for developing nations that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
"While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop," said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP.

The report comes days before policymakers head to the annual UN Conference of Parties climate conference. This year, COP30 will take place in Belém, Brazil, the “gateway” to the Amazon rainforest, marking a decade since 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement at COP21 in December 2015.
Delegates to COP30 are facing a world that, by many climate measures, is going in the wrong direction. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to climb, reaching record highs. In 2024, CO2 levels rose by 3.5 parts per million (ppm), the most significant annual increase since modern measurements began in 1957, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
"Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action," Andersen said.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck







