2025 likely to be Earth’s 2nd- or 3rd-warmest year on record: Copernicus
This year is “virtually certain” to finish as the second- or third-warmest year on record, trailing 2024 and potentially tying with 2023, according to new data analyzed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Last month also ranked as the third-warmest November on record globally, behind 2024 and 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 14.02 degrees Celsius (57.24 degrees Fahrenheit). Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere (September to November) similarly registered as the third warmest on record.
While global air and sea surface temperatures are currently falling short of new record highs, climate scientists warn this pause is unlikely to persist as human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue to drive the long-term warming trend.
“These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change and the only way to mitigate future rising temperatures is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate, said in a statement released with the report.

A short-term drop in global temperatures was expected due to the La Niña event, which ended in April. This climate pattern typically causes a temporary dip in average global temperatures. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña conditions have reemerged and are likely to last into early 2026.
While the planet is unlikely to set another annual temperature record in 2025, global warming continues to inch closer to the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming limit established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, a threshold climate scientists view as critical for avoiding the worst impacts of human-amplified climate change.
For the first time, the three–year global temperature average (2023-2025) is expected to exceed this warming threshold, according to Copernicus. While 2025 itself is projected to remain below the limit, 2024 became the first year on record to register more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. In addition, nine consecutive months, from August 2024 through April 2025, individually surpassed the limit.
Although this trend is concerning, it is important to note that temporarily exceeding the threshold is not considered a failure to limit warming, since climate averages are analyzed over multiple decades. However, that distinction may not hold for much longer. A report released last month by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that multi-decadal global temperature averages are likely to surpass the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold within the next decade, at least temporarily.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck






