Gas prices unlikely to fall below $4 a gallon before midterms, some experts say

High gas prices continue to weigh on wallets as voters list affordability as a top concern ahead of early November's midterm elections.

The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $4.27, marking an increase of nearly $1.30, or 43%, since the outbreak of the Iran war in February, AAA data showed.

Fuel prices are unlikely to ease significantly before Election Day on Nov. 3, some analysts told ABC News, predicting gas prices would all but certainly remain above $4 a gallon.

Analysts attributed elevated gas prices to ongoing fighting in the Middle East, which has damaged oil infrastructure and forced firms to take up costly means of transporting crude. The Russia-Ukraine war has also crimped fuel exports from Russia, they said, compounding the supply shortage.

There is little indication of an imminent resolution of either conflict, the analysts said. Even in the event of a peace deal in the Middle East and a drop in oil costs, for instance, gas prices would likely fall at a delayed pace as retailers sell through refined product purchased while oil prices were at higher levels, they added.

"It's weeks before the election and we’ve got a ramp up of what’s happening in the Middle East, as opposed to some type of calming and a sign energy prices are coming down," Tom Seng, a professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University, told ABC News.

GasBuddy Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan ruled out the possibility of a fall below the $4 a gallon threshold by early November. "Gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms," De Haan said in a post on X.

The Brent crude futures price, a benchmark for global oil trading, climbed above $112 a barrel on Thursday. Until this week, oil prices had last reached that benchmark in May. The latest reading amounts to a rise of nearly 60% since the start of the Iran war.

Oil prices climbed earlier this week after Iran and its Houthi allies claimed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy claimed on Thursday to have attacked four vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing the ships of navigating an "illegal route" and "transferring oil cargoes from one ship to another."

The ships were hit while in the north-central part of the Persian Gulf, the IRGC Navy claimed, in a statement published by the semi-official Fars News Agency.

The IRGC Navy also reported that three vessels hit naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday night.

The reports came days after Yemen-based Houthi militants claimed a wave of strikes on Saudia Arabia, including the Shaybah oil field as well as Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu, a port city near a key transport corridor on the Red Sea.

Despite continued fighting, crude oil exports from the region had improved in recent weeks, according to tracking firm Kpler. Even so, heightened transport costs and damaged refinery infrastructure have disrupted the supply of refined product necessary for auto gasoline, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, told ABC News.

The U.S. -- the world's largest oil producer -- imports a small amount of fuel from the Middle East. Since oil and gas are sold on a global market, however, the unrest has sent prices rising for everyone, including U.S. drivers.

"I’m sure you've seen everything about crude oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz at pre-war levels. The simple fact is that refined products are not," Cinquegrana said. "If prices are going up in one place, the chances are they will pull up prices in another place."

A resolution of the war would eventually ease gas prices, but it is unlikely that significant relief at the pump would materialize within days or weeks, some analysts said. Some key oil infrastructure in the region would still require lengthy repairs, they said, while retailers may prove reluctant to slash prices.

Gas prices usually fall at a slower pace than they rise, since retailers prefer to keep prices elevated as they sell through inventory acquired at high cost, Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, told ABC News.

"It's usually a pretty slow downward trajectory for gas prices," Krishnamoorti said.

Even if gas prices are likely to remain high within the coming weeks, some analysts acknowledged reason to be hopeful about the general outlook for costs at the pump.

Seasonal fluctuations typically provide price relief for drivers in the fall.

A slowdown in travel has eased demand for gas as families have returned from summer vacation and resumed routine driving associated with work and school commutes.

Refineries, meanwhile, have begun shifting toward a less-expensive blend of winter fuel. Refineries contend with fewer regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency in the cooler fall and winter months, allowing for a cheaper blend of fuel.

"Demand tends to go down at this time of year. That's seasonality at play," Cinquegrana said.

For now, however, a supply shortage will likely keep gas prices above $4 a gallon over the next couple weeks.

When asked about whether U.S. gas prices could fall below that benchmark by Election Day, Cinquegrana said, "Short answer: No."

ABC News' Nasser Atta, Othon Leyva and Desiree Adib contributed to this report