Will shoppers receive any savings from tariff refunds? Experts explain

The Trump administration has opened an online portal for businesses seeking billions of dollars in refunds for tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court.

The high court in February nullified steep tariffs issued by the president on "Liberation Day," as well as a 10% tariff placed on all imports.

In all, thousands of importers paid a combined $166 billion in taxes under the invalidated legal authority, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said. Shoppers bore a share of those levies in the form of price increases, but they will not receive direct reimbursement from the federal government.

Companies may pass along some of the tariff refund to shoppers but they are unlikely to recover the lion share of money lost to tariff-induced price hikes, some analysts told ABC News.

Here’s what to know about tariff refunds and whether shoppers will receive any compensation.

How will tariff repayment work?

To receive refunds, companies must submit information related to their tariff payments under the now-invalid International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPPA).

Valid refunds will be issued to firms within 60 to 90 days after the submission of all necessary information, CBP said.

“Companies will provide evidence they paid these tariffs and they'll get their refunds directly back from the government,” Raymond Robertson, professor for trade, economics and public policy at Texas A&M University, told ABC News.

The repayment process is set to be unveiled in phases, beginning with an initial tranche of refund requests made available on April 20, CBP said.

Will shoppers receive a refund for tariff-related price hikes?

The repayment process returns levy payments to the entities that paid them: Importers. Many importers, however, passed along those added costs to consumers in the form of high prices.

The New York Federal Reserve found that roughly 90% of the tariff costs were shouldered by U.S. companies and shoppers.

Estimates vary regarding the amount of added costs paid by shoppers. The Tax Foundation pegged the cost burden at a total of about $1,000 per U.S. household in 2025, while the Yale Budget Lab put the figure at about $1,680 per household.

Some of those costs hit consumers on account of levies left in place by the Supreme Court, meaning only a share of that added spending came from tariffs subject to refunds.

The precise amount of tariff costs passed along to consumers may prove a “complicated question,” Morris Cohen, a professor emeritus of manufacturing and supply chains at Duke University, told ABC News.

The share of tariff pass-through likely varies by product, hinging in part on the amount of added cost borne by a foreign supplier, as well as the price increases charged to retailers.

“Obviously, a good chunk of the increase in costs was passed along to consumers -- but not all of it,” Matias Vernengo, a professor of economics at Bucknell University, told ABC News.

Have any corporations committed to repaying customers for tariff-related costs?

Some companies have voiced a willingness to pass along tariff refunds to customers, but most have not.

Shipping firms like FedEx, DHL and UPS have said they will reimburse customers for tariff-related costs. Those companies handled deliveries for companies and individuals who import foreign goods. In some cases, the delivery firms were charged on behalf of importing customers, who paid the shipping companies for the full amount owed to the government.

The shipping companies, in turn, have said they will refund customers in full for tariff payments after the firms receive reimbursement from the government.

It remains unclear how most major retailers will handle tariff refunds – and whether they will pass along some of the savings to shoppers.

An exception is big-box retailer Costco. Ron Vachris, the megastore’s CEO, told investors in March that the company would “find the best way to return this value to our members through lower prices and better values.”