Poll: Convention Boosts Confidence — At Least Among Republicans
N E W Y O R K, Sept. 8, 2004 -- — Fresh off their convention, consumer confidence among Republicans jumped to its best level in nearly four years, helping to pull the ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index out of a recent lull.
The ABC/Money index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, up four points from last week. After losing five points throughout August, it’s about back to where it was in July, and just above its average in weekly polls since December 1985.
Rosier economic ratings by Republicans are largely responsible for the gain. The index among Republicans is +47, up 10 points from last week to its best since just after the last presidential election. In contrast, the index is essentially flat among Democrats (up three points to an index of -31) and independents (down two to an index of -24).
The index among Democrats gained eight points just after their convention in July, mitigated by losses among Republicans and independents that week. This is not a persistent effect; in 1992, an election in which the economy played a prominent role, consumer confidence among political partisans was little changed after each convention. This year, though, political partisanship is displaying a stronger-than-usual interplay with economic views.
Interviews for this poll were conducted during the last four weeks, with about one-tenth of the total interviews conducted during the Labor Day weekend. Polling on a holiday weekend can be less reliable because fewer people may be reachable at home.Historically, however, movement in the ABC/Money index after Labor Day very closely matches the average change in any given week. That suggests this week’s change is unrelated to the holiday and, since it occurred among Republicans, has more to do with their convention.
INDEX — The ABC/Money index is composed of ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate. This week, 40 percent of Americans say the economy’s in good shape, 60 percent say their own finances are OK and 39 percent call it a good time to buy things. All ratings are at or slightly above average.
TREND — The ABC/Money index reached its best this year, -3, in mid-January, then declined significantly through the winter, bottoming out at -22 on March 14. It advanced in April, retreated in May through mid-June in the face of rising gasoline prices, and rebounded in late June and July. It slipped in August before edging up this week.
The index has ranged from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February 1992. Its worst annual average was -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, much worse than the best yearly average of +29 in 2000. This year’s average is -12 to date.
GROUPS — Confidence, as usual, is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +32 among higher-income people while -49 among those with the lowest incomes, +7 among college graduates while -35 among high-school dropouts and -3 among whites while -33 among blacks. Like last week, the gap between men and women is smaller now than usual, probably because it’s been overshadowed by political partisanship.
The West (+1) and South (-5) continue to be the best regionally; the index is -13 in the Northeast and -12 in the Midwest.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Forty percent of Americans rate the U.S. economy as excellent or good; it was 37 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty percent see their own finances as excellent or good; it was 59 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-nine percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 37 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY — The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,000 interviews in the four weeks ending Sept. 5 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABC News/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABC News polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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