Iran will 'spread the pain' with more attacks on US Middle East allies, analysts say

LONDON -- The first days of Operation Epic Fury saw strikes spread to at least 11 nations as Iran seemingly sought to inflate the cost of the conflict to the American-aligned regional bloc.

Before the outbreak of the latest round of fighting, Iranian officials had vowed that any attack would prompt a fierce retaliation against Israel and American bases and interests in the region. Iran's retaliation, though, has gone far beyond purely American and Israeli targets.

Following the Israeli-U.S. strikes on Tehran early on Saturday -- which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, among dozens of other Iranian officials -- missiles quickly began landing in Israel. Before the day was out, Iranian munitions also targeted American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

But unlike during the 12-day war in June 2025, Tehran's forces also launched a sustained aerial offensive against broader targets in the Gulf nations. Iranian drones and missiles have hit military, industrial and civilian targets across the region. In Kuwait, at least six U.S. servicemembers were killed, the U.S. said.

Also novel was the report of Iranian drones attacking the Mediterranean island of Cyprus -- more than 1,100 miles from Iran -- where at least one craft hit a British air base. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has sparked a new round of conflict between Israel and the Tehran-aligned Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

Iran's immediate focus -- all, so far, using medium- and long-range weapons -- on other regional nations is part of its plan "to make sure the pain is spread," Negar Mortazavi, of the independent, nonprofit Center for International Policy think tank and host of the Iran Podcast, told ABC News during a ReThink Media briefing on Monday.

"They want an indirect pressure from the neighbors on the White House to try to stop the war or prevent it from happening again," Mortazavi added.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. National Intelligence Council official now at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council think tank, said Iran's attacks in the Gulf show that, unlike during last year's conflict, Iran "really thinks that the regime is [under] threat."

"Regime survival is its priority," Panikoff told ABC News during an Atlantic Council webinar on Monday. "What they're hoping is that if they attack the Gulf states, the Gulf states will then beg the United States, essentially, to stop the war."

The approach could bear more fruit as time goes on, Panikoff said, if casualties increase and commodity markets are roiled. "I think it's a question of time," he added. "Pressure will obviously aggregate."

Fire and fury in the Gulf

Ali Larjinai, the influential head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran was merely targeting U.S. military bases hosted by Gulf nations. But plentiful footage of Iranian munitions impacting hotels, airports and major thoroughfares in major Gulf cities indicates otherwise.

Regional officials were furious. A joint statement signed by the U.S., Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on Monday condemned what they said were "Iran's indiscriminate and reckless missile and drone attacks."

"The Islamic Republic's actions represent a dangerous escalation that violates the sovereignty of multiple states and threatens regional stability. The targeting of civilians and of countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless and destabilizing behavior," they added.

Officials from affected countries -- and prominent local influencers -- have lauded the performance of defense forces, with the vast majority of Iranian missiles and drones so far having been downed. But some munitions have beaten the air defense umbrellas, with falling debris from both offensive and defensive weapons also setting fires and inflicting civilian casualties.

Each Iranian attack consumes more expensive air defense interceptors, demand for which has spiked worldwide thanks in part to Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, of which Moscow's nightly drone and missile attacks are a key element.

Such interceptors can cost several million dollars each, compared to Iranian strike drones which can cost tens of thousands of dollars. Iranian ballistic missiles are more expensive than its drones, but analysts who spoke with ABC News suggested that the long-term cost ratio is still in Tehran's favor.

Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, told an Atlantic Council think tank briefing on Monday that Iran may seek to "stretch this out to try to outlast the air defenses" of Gulf nations, such is the pressure on defensive munition stocks.

U.S. partners in the Gulf have already faced several consecutive days of Iranian attacks, with Tehran showing no immediate indication of easing the pressure.

The Atlantic Council's Victoria Taylor noted to ABC News the contrast between the opening days of this conflict and the 12-day war in June. Last year, she said, Tehran's limited and telegraphed attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar allowed for de-escalation. Iran showed no such caution this time around.

"This is about Iran's perception of a U.S. goal of regime change," Taylor said. "In that context, Iran has almost no incentive to de-escalate right now unless they're starting to get signals from the United States that there's going to be some kind of negotiation or off-ramp that would be favorable to them."

The White House also said it did not see the conflict ending quickly, with Trump telling ABC News on Sunday it could last for four or five weeks, maybe longer.

But Iran's wide-ranging attacks also risk hardening the coalition against it, Panikoff said. Qatar and the UAE have already threatened retribution. Qatar on Monday claimed to have shot down two Iranian fighter jets.

"Some European partners who are also indicating a willingness now to play a role that even a couple of days ago, they probably were not expecting to play," Panikoff said.

The economic front

The strategic importance, wealth and well-equipped armed forces of the Gulf states -- particularly the likes of the UAE and Saudi Arabia -- are built in part on their immense energy resources. Of particular concern to regional leaders may be Tehran's early decision to attack energy targets.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia said two Iranian drones were intercepted during an attack on the Ras Tanura refinery, which is operated by the state-run Saudi Aramco oil behemoth and is among the country's largest. The ministry reported falling shrapnel and a subsequent fire, dramatic videos of which quickly spread on social media.

The Defense Ministry In neighboring Qatar also reported an Iranian drone attack on energy targets on Monday. The craft, it said, were used to attack a water tank belonging to a power plant in Mesaieed and another "energy facility" in Ras Laffan Industrial City.

Soon after, QatarEnergy -- the world's largest liquefied natural gas producer -- said it would halt production there. The state-owned firm cited the ongoing conflict for its decision, offering no timeline for a resumption of production. Ras Laffan accounts for around one fifth of global LNG supply, Bloomberg reported.

The Strait of Hormuz -- the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, which at its narrowest point is just over 20 miles wide -- is a natural chokepoint in any regional conflict. Around 20% of the world's oil and around one-third of global LNG supply passes through the waterway.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait to commercial shipping. In the days before the U.S.-Israeli attack, Iran conducted well-publicized military exercises in the area. In the hours after explosions first shook Tehran on Saturday, Iranian state media declared the strait closed.

"The Iranians absolutely could close the strait," Panikoff said, but it would then become "a question of a kinetic engagement with the U.S., with other allies, in terms of how hard it would be to bust the blockade."

The outbreak of a new war saw traffic in the strait drop sharply, according to the MarineTraffic website, which monitors real-time traffic of ships. The number of transits through the chokepoint fell by approximately 70% after 11 a.m. ET on Feb. 28, compared with levels 12 hours earlier.

The disruption and uncertainty spiked oil prices. On Tuesday, the Brent crude oil benchmark briefly rose above $85 a barrel -- the first time it had done so since July 2024.

"I fear that that is going to be a very central piece of the Iranian strategy," Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft think tank told ABC News of a focus on energy targets during the ReThink Media briefing.

Tehran, Parsi said, will seek "to make this war as costly as possible for everyone, not just for the United States, but for the global economy as a whole. They want to shoot up oil prices, they want to shoot up inflation -- everything in order to make it costly for the U.S. to continue this war."

The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen withstood an American air campaign in 2025 long enough to secure a ceasefire deal.

Tehran, Parsi said, "believe that if they can do the same thing -- but on a much larger scale -- they can get Trump to back off, potentially come down to some negotiations down the road."

ABC News' Camilla Alcini, Zunaira Zaki and Victor Ordonez contributed to this report.