ABCNEWS Analysis: Al Qaeda's October Messages to America
By Christopher Isham -- Oct. 30, 2004 -- The release of the new bin Laden tape to al Jazeera on Friday and the release one week earlier to ABCNEWS of a tape from a man described as an American member of al Qaeda, called "Azzam the American," were clearly designed to send a message to all Americans immediately before the U.S. elections.
"Azzam" delivers a harsh denunciation of American policies, pronounces all Americans guilty and rants that our "streets will run with blood." Bin Laden also attacks U.S. policies and President Bush, defending terrorism as a response to American injustice, but stopping short of issuing an explicit threat. Some of his statements could even be viewed as conciliatory and his demeanor is quite measured in comparison to previous appearances. He has abandoned his military fatigues and the AK-47 at his side for a more formal podium that seems designed to portray him as a statesman, rather than a mass murderer. Side by side, the two tapes have a bad-cop, good-cop aspect to them.
The principal question intelligence analysts are working on is whether the tapes constitute a sign that another major terrorist attack in the U.S. is imminent, perhaps before the elections or on Election Day? Historically, some of bin Laden's statements have been followed by major terrorist attacks, (e.g. bin Laden's May 1998 interview with ABCNEWS was followed by the August 7 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Africa). Some of his statements, however, have been followed by no such attacks. At present, the U.S. has no credible intelligence that such an attack is in the works.
Over the summer, the CIA received intelligence from two sources that al Qaeda was planning an attack in the U.S. before the November 2 elections. One of those sources, a detainee, however has since been discredited since he failed a polygraph examination. The other source is of untested credibility. Neither source has been able to provide any specifics of such a plot. Analysts also believe that arrests in August of cells in Pakistan and the UK did substantial damage to al Qaeda's operational capability making it difficult, if not impossible for the network to launch large scale attacks in the United States. Following this line of thought, some analysts believe that the new tapes represent an admission that al Qaeda does not have the capability to attack now and therefore must resort to an elaborate propaganda play.
Some analysts, however, believe that the "Azzam the American" tape, constitutes a strong message to the U.S. intelligence community that there is much about al Qaeda that remains unknown, and more importantly, effective. Since Tuesday, the position of U.S. intelligence officials was that the tape "could not be authenticated" because the speaker could not be identified. With the emergence of the bin Laden tape on Friday, and its identical graphic markings , however, U.S. efforts to identify "Azzam" have escalated.
The FBI is currently leading its website with an urgent appeal for help in identifying the mysterious speaker who is covered in a shroud during his 75 minute invective. Some FBI agents believe that he is Adam Gadahn, also known as Adam Pearlemen, an American Muslim from Orange county, CA, who the FBI believes has joined al Qaeda and has been missing for more than 4 years. Family members have told FBI agents that "Azzam" is not Gadahn. However, the imam at a local mosque, who knew Adam Gadahn, told news networks on Friday after listening to the tape, that he believes that the speaker is, in fact, Gadahn. Law enforcement officials are also trying to determine the identity of a second individual who is off camera, but is heard on the tape posing several questions to "Azzam." Some officials believe that the questioner may be Adnan G. El Shukrijumah, a former Florida resident and suspected al Qaeda operative who has been the subject a major international manhunt for the past year. Analysts are concerned that the tape and its two, as yet unidentified, English speakers, may be an indication that al Qaeda has an active cell in the United States, and that the two individuals themselves, may be in the U.S.
Another question under focus is whether the release by al Qaeda of these two tapes in the week before the U.S. elections is intended to influence the elections in one way or another and if so, how? In the tape, bin Laden indicates that he sees little distinction between Kerry and Bush. He states: "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry, Bush, or al Qaeda.." Much of the tape released by al Jazeera, however, is an attack on President Bush. He promotes the Michael Moore legend that the President was more interested in reading about a pet goat to schoolchildren than saving thousands of Americans from death and that he and his father stole the 2000 election (a trick they picked up from their autocratic and royal friends in power in the Middle East).
Significant portions of the 18 minute tape that has still not been released by al Jazeera include further attacks on Bush by bin Laden. Perhaps the most important message of the tape is his mere appearance for the first time in three years speaking on camera, a message that appears to be a reminder to the American people that he is still alive and at large despite President Bush's global war on terrorism, a message to Americans that they are no safer now than they were four years ago.
Most U.S. political analysts believe that the surfacing of the tape in the days before the election will bring terrorism back to the top of the agenda and therefore will help the President on an issue that, in most opinion polls, he is perceived to be stronger on than Senator Kerry. Some counter-terrorist analysts believe, however, that bin Laden hopes that the two tapes and their dual messages, will tell Americans that Bush's war on terror has failed and that they are still vulnerable.
As the resources of the intelligence and law enforcement communities are brought to bear on the examination of the two tapes, the unanswered questions and disparate analysis are further reminders of the continuing shortfall of hard intelligence on the motives, the capabilities and intents of the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world.
The Insider Daily Investigative Report (DIR) is a summary of major news articles and broadcasts relating to investigative news, including international terrorism and developments in Iraq. The DIR is edited daily from foreign and U.S. sources by Chris Isham, Hoda Osman and Brinda Adhikari of the ABC News Investigative Unit. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of ABCNEWS.