ABC Poll: Americans Believe Bush on Iraq

Dec. 17, 2002 -- With the United States soon to issue its critique of Iraq's weapons declaration, the vast majority of Americans believe Baghdad does possess weapons of mass destruction — but a growing number want to see the Bush administration's evidence.

Fifty-eight percent in this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll say they'd like to see President Bush present more evidence against Iraq before taking action, up eight points since September. Fifty-four percent also express concern Bush will move too quickly against Iraq, rather than too slowly.

These cautions serve as a counterpoint to a sharp jump in the number who think war is on the way — now, 87 percent, up from 71 percent late last summer.

One important factor in the public's cautious approach is its doubt about the immediacy of the threat. Eighty-one percent of Americans see Iraq as a threat to the United States. Fewer but still a majority, 64 percent, think that threat is a substantial one. But far fewer still, 44 percent, see Iraq as an "immediate" danger.

Public Support Conditional

This lack of immediacy is one reason that public support for military action against Iraq is conditional — indeed so conditional there's room to doubt how committed that support may prove to be.

Most broadly, 62 percent of Americans support U.S. military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power, unchanged since the end of September. But when those who support military action in general are asked about specific circumstances — a major bombing campaign, unilateral action, a ground war, a high casualty ground war — support drops below a majority, to anywhere from 50 percent to 30 percent.

Fifty percent of Americans support a major U.S. bombing campaign against Iraqi military targets. Forty-five percent support using U.S. ground troops to invade Iraq, and this falls to 30 percent if it means a high-casualty ground war. Support for military action drops to 42 percent in the face of allied opposition, and to 37 percent if the United Nations opposes it.

Assessing the Threat

Actual support for U.S. military action will depend on the nature of that action and the circumstances that surround it. But it's clear from polling over the years that support for military action is strongest when it's seen as a necessary measure to counter a real threat.

In this poll, among Americans who consider Iraq a threat, 71 percent support attacking it. Among those who think it's a big threat, support for attacking rises to 78 percent; and among those who think it's an immediate threat, support for action peaks at 85 percent.

Among those who don't see Iraq as a threat to the United States, by contrast, only 21 percent support attacking it.

Similarly, among people who are concerned the Bush administration might not move quickly enough, 90 percent support military action. This dives to 39 percent of those who are concerned the administration might move too quickly.

Evidence, and allied support, also matter. Attacking is favored by 89 percent of those who think Bush has provided enough evidence, compared to 44 percent of those who don't. And it's favored by 71 percent of those who think Bush has done enough to win allied support, compared to just 44 percent of those who say he hasn't done enough.

The Bush administration has made progress on the international front: Two-thirds now think it has done enough to win support from other countries, up 12 points since September, likely as a result of the U.N. Security Council's resolution last month that returned weapons inspectors to Iraq.

Nuclear Force

Eighty-nine percent of Americans believe Iraq, despite its denials, does possess chemical, biological or nuclear weapons — and most would support harsh repercussions if they were used against American troops.

Six in 10 say they'd support using nuclear weapons against Iraq if it attacked U.S. forces with biological or chemical weapons. Last week the Bush administration said it was prepared to use "overwhelming force" — including nuclear weapons — in response to an attack that used weapons of mass destruction against the United States, its forces or allies.

How's The President Doing?

Bush's job approval rating remains very high, fueled almost exclusively by sky-high ratings of how he's handling the campaign against terrorism. His ratings specifically on Iraq are lower but still respectable; on several social issues and the economy, lower still. And the number of Americans who "strongly" approve of his overall work has dropped to 37 percent, its lowest since before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, that transformed his presidency.

Overall, 66 percent approve of Bush's performance as president. Many more, 79 percent, approve of how he's handling the campaign against terrorism, up a bit to its highest level since July. Related to this, 67 percent approve of his work on homeland security.

Fifty-eight percent approve of Bush's handling of the situation with Iraq; it's much lower, 43 percent, among those who think he may move too quickly, and 42 percent among those who'd like to see more evidence against Iraq.

On domestic issues, Bush gets 62 percent approval for his handling of education, but his ratings drop to 51 percent on taxes, 50 percent on the economy, 50 percent on the environment and 49 percent on Social Security. His ratings drop sharply from there; on health insurance just 33 percent approve, on the cost of prescription drugs, 29 percent.

Democrats Versus Republicans

As with Bush, the Republicans in Congress are at their strongest in terms of the campaign against terrorism, homeland security and Iraq. And these remain top-tier issues for the public, along with the economy.

Republicans lead the Democrats by more than 2-1 in trust to handle terrorism, 61 percent to 25 percent; by 58 percent 31 percent on homeland security; and by 56 percent 30 percent on Iraq.

Republicans and Democrats are evenly matched on the economy — not bad for the Republicans, given their control of the White House (and soon Congress) and the relatively poor state of consumer confidence. (Fifty-six percent don't blame Bush for the country's economic problems, and just 18 percent assign him a "great deal" of blame.)

The Democrats' best among higher-tier issues is a nine-point advantage on education. They lead by larger margins, 20 points or more, on health insurance, Social Security, prescription drugs and the environment, but these stand lower in public priority.

The relative strength of the parties on these competing issues leads to near parity in trust to handle "the main problems the nation faces over the next few years." Forty-four percent pick the Republicans; 41 percent, the Democrats.

Know Your Rights

Finally, most people think the United States is on the right track when it comes to trying to prevent terrorism and also to protect basic civil rights.

Fifty-five percent say the government is "doing all it reasonably can" to try to prevent terrorism, while 43 percent say it "should do more," numbers that have held steady since spring. Separately, 61 percent believe the government is doing enough to protect the rights of U.S. citizens, unchanged since June.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 12-15, among a random national sample of 1,209 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.