Recall, Budget Woes Hit California
L O S A N G E L E S, July 23, 2003 -- Californians have a tendency to look on the bright side, a mood that matches the climate. But looking on the bright side is getting harder every day.
So much is happening that political analysts are using a cliché of epic proportions to describe it: They call it "The Perfect Storm."
"It is the size of the deficit. It is the polarization of the political environment in Sacramento, which doesn't allow any movement toward a budget. It is the leadership vacuum in the governor's office, which is real," said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe.
Plus, there's the drive to recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and an economy that remains tragic. "I've never seen that kind of convergence before. For the first time, in a very long time, I am frightened for my state," Jeffe said.
She's not alone. California has a whopping deficit of $38 billion. Republicans in the Legislature are adamantly opposing tax increases and Democrats are opposing more cuts in services. Although Democrats control the Legislature, passing a budget requires a two-thirds majority.
Democratic strategist Darry Srago said that although Democrats essentially are in control of the state, they need some Republican votes for the budget, which they're not getting. "They are willing to have California grind to a complete halt to make a point," Srago said.
The budget impasse means some 30,000 state workers could lose their jobs by September. Others could be cut back to minimum wage. Also facing severe cutbacks are nursing homes and day-care centers that rely on state funding, as well as community colleges. The University of California system has already raised fees 25 percent.
Davis: ‘Captain of the Ship’
So what does Davis, who was elected to a second term in 2002, have to say about this so-called perfect storm?
"I know I'm the captain of the ship and I have to take responsibility that if something happens on the ship. That doesn't mean I was down there drilling the hole that allowed the water to pour in," Davis said.
But his opponents do blame Davis. They say he mishandled the energy crisis and spent too much during the halcyon days of the dot-com boom, when a handful of millionaires in Silicon Valley accounted for 20 percent of all income-tax revenue.
"We've become increasingly dependent on the personal tax, income tax and in particular the very upper ends of personal income tax. Also, taxes on stock options and capital gains, and when the economy goes in the tank, the state budget goes in the tank," said Bruce Cain, a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley.
Davis said he now believes revenues from capital gains should be put in a reserve account for a rainy day or, more to the point, a rainy year. "You never think good times are going to end. And you never think bad times are going to end. But both end," he said.
But Davis' bad times are just beginning. He now faces a recall challenge from the right, which has garnered more than 1 million signatures to put the matter before the voters.
When California voters approved the recall provision back in 1911, it was designed to ferret out corrupt politicians, not unpopular ones. Since then, there have been 31 efforts to recall a governor but none of them succeeded in getting the required number of signatures.
One Angry Republican
Some say, the difference this time is money, particularly the money of one man.
Rep. Darrell Issa, a Republican from Orange County, has put more than $1 million of his own money to fund the recall effort. He wants the governor's job for himself.
Issa, a fairly obscure politician before this began, insists he is the right man at the right time.
"I think right now what California needs is a fiscal conservative and a tough-nosed businessman who's willing to make hard cuts, some of which aren't popular because you can't do your customers any good if you can't make a profit on your product," Issa said.
Davis, during a visit to a health-care clinic Tuesday, emphasized his commitment to funding programs for children and the uninsured. It was a not-so-subtle appeal to his Democratic constituency.
"This election is not about changing governors. It's about changing direction," Davis said. "And I am confident the voters of this state will not opt for a right-wing agenda over a progressive agenda."
The governor is also quick to point out that a recall election will cost taxpayers about $30 million. It's an expensive production and, most likely, there will be a very crowded stage. All it takes to qualify for the ballot is 65 signatures and $3,500.
Will Davis Be ‘Terminated?’
One of the actors in this soap opera has an advantage. He is an actor — Arnold Schwarzenegger, aka The Terminator, is reportedly ready to run, but audience reaction is mixed.
"I think Arnold Schwarzenegger in the movies, but I cannot picture him running a state," said Diana Estrada, a waitress at the Pann Diner.
Of course, anyone and his cousin can get on the ballot, and a number of GOP politicians are lining up. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party insists that no Democrat will be on the ballot.
"The voters here in California need to understand that when you go vote in the recall, you will not have a chance to then pick a Democrat because we stand firmly 100 percent behind Gov. Gray Davis. No ifs, ands, or buts," said Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe.
But the embattled governor does not usually inspire great loyalty, even within his own party. Even he concedes he is charisma-challenged.
"At the end of the day, even though I'm this dull, boring guy, they like what I stand for and they like the fact that I normally prevail," Davis said.
All this fiscal and political uncertainty has prompted Wall Street to drop California's credit rating to one of the lowest in the country. For a state with the fifth-largest economy in the world, that is very bad news. As for what comes next, all bets are off.
"No one who gives you the odds should be listened to," said political analyst Jeffe. "We have nothing to compare this with. This is something new in the state."