The Note: "Mr. Reid . . . ?"

— -- WASHINGTON, Sep. 21

NEWS SUMMARY

The announcement from the pro-life Democratic Leader of the Senate that he intends to vote "no" on the Roberts nomination should provide some political cover to caucus members who choose to go that same route.

However, Reid's decision has not yet initiated a stampede of Democrats to the microphones to join Sen. Reid's position in advance of tomorrow's Judiciary Committee vote. Ted Kennedy sort of stated his position (against) and a pair of Red State Democrats seem in favor, but the rest of the committee members in the minority (and the would-be presidential candidates) all remain officially undecided.

However, it was not Roberts, but the next nomination on the agenda at the White House this morning.

ABC News' Karen Travers attended the West Wing driveway stakeout post-breakfast briefing from the quartet and filed this report:

"The Senators discussed the consultation process and timing of the nomination, according to Sen. Frist, who said if the nomination came quickly, the Judiciary Committee would be able to handle it in a timely fashion and get the nomination through by Thanksgiving,"

"Sen. Frist said he encouraged the President to submit the name of his next nominee in a timely way and said hopefully that is 'within the next 10 days or so.'"

"Sen. Specter also floated the idea of Justice O'Connor remaining on the bench for the upcoming term, but that was not received well by the President or the other Senators."

Travers also reports that no specific names were divulged by the Senators to the press corps, but that Sen. Leahy said the same dozen or so names bandied about in July were mentioned to the President again this morning including Hispanics, African Americans, and women.

It's unclear if the President told Sen. Reid that he considers his voting "no" on Roberts a "poke in the eye with a sharp stick."

In conjunction with tomorrow's Judiciary Committee vote on the Roberts nomination, we will launch "The Streaming Note." ABC's George Stephanopoulos and Mark Halperin will field questions you submit by phone and email about the Roberts nomination and what it all means at 1:00 pm ET during an exclusive 15-minute streaming video event.

Be sure to check The Note tomorrow for all the details on how to participate.

As for the rest of today's events . . .

Despite some Republicans on the Hill hinting that Social Security reform is a (near) dead agenda item this year, President Bush plans to put it on the front burner today when he meets with his "Commission to Strengthen Social Security" in the Roosevelt Room at 1:45 pm ET. Still photos only at the top of the event. . . so perhaps the President is putting it on the middle burner (for those of you with those three-row stove tops).

President Bush will also deliver remarks to the Republican Jewish Coalition's Anniversary Luncheon at noon ET in Washington, DC. (Gov. Romney (R-MA) will be there too.) RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman is one of three honorees with Sheldon Adelson and Bernie Marcus. Congratulations to one and all. As usual, the nachas flows freely in the Mehlman family.

The Speaker of Iraq's Transitional National Assembly will meet with President Bush in the Oval Office at 2:20 pm ET.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) heads a 10:00 am ET press conference on the introduction of Democratic legislation aimed at cracking down on gas price gouging.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) holds a 10:00 am ET hearing on the impact of Hurricane Katrina on small businesses.

The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing on "Able Danger and Intelligence Information Sharing" at 9:30 am ET.

Reps. Chaka Fattah (D-PA) and Robert Ney (R-OH) will unveil the official portrait of former Rep. Joseph Rainey, who was the first African-American elected to the House of Representatives where he served from 1870-1879.

At 7:40 pm ET, First Lady Laura Bush will deliver remarks at the Third Annual Boehner-Kennedy Dinner which raises money for Washington, DC area Catholic schools.

The 1996 presidential election combatants (and former 60 Minutes co-stars), Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, will headline a fundraising gala in Greensboro, NC this evening for the Bennett College for Women.

The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation kicks off its annual gathering with featured speaker Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) this evening at 6:00 pm ET at the Convention Center in Washington, DC.

John Roberts for Chief Justice: the whip count:

When asked at Union Station on Tuesday evening following a roast of Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) whether she had decided how to vote on John Roberts, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) told ABC News: "Oh, I'm thinking about it."

The New York Times' Stolberg and Kirkpatrick detail some of the meetings Sen. Reid had with interest groups (and their post- announcement elation) that may have influenced his decision to oppose Roberts. LINK

The Times duo also has Sen. Kennedy unsurprisingly tipping his hand for a vote against Roberts.

Per the Washington Post's Babington and Balz: "Roberts's confirmation is a foregone conclusion in the Senate, where Republicans hold 55 of the 100 seats. The only question is how many Democrats will support him, and what political signal it will send. Party liberals hope no more than 15 Democrats, mostly from states Bush carried, will vote yes. That would result in a 70 to 30 confirmation vote. But Sen. Kent Conrad recently told reporters: 'I think he can get from 75 to 80 votes.'" LINK

The New York Post says that Sen. Reid's announced opposition to Roberts provides "political cover for New York Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Charles Schumer should they, too, decide to oppose Roberts." Neither has announced their voting plans. LINK

While Sen. Reid voiced his opposition to John Roberts' confirmation, Democratic Sens. Ben Nelson and Max Baucus both say they're inclined to vote for him. Roberts will meet today with Sen. Barack Obama, who has not announced his intentions. LINK

Sen. Chaffee will vote to confirm, reports the Providence Journal. LINK

John Roberts for Chief Justice:

The Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings looks at White House and Democrat options on the Roberts vote and O'Connor pick, with:

- a focus on the Bayh and Clinton votes.

- David Gergen saying (correctly) that Democrats can't really win with the White House and the base, no matter what they do on Roberts.

- reporting from "people familiar with the administration's efforts" saying that the White House is "scouring the federal-court benches for a female judge who could hold up under committee questioning…a nominee whose record is conservative enough to appeal to the party base but not so sharp as to give ammunition to Democrats . . ."

- Reid cautioning against Owen and Brown.

- the Notion that "many Bush associates" think he is determined to pick Al Gonzales (still).

- And, Owl Eyes Scott Reed saying a "weak" Bush "has got to go right on this choice or his base will totally implode."

The Los Angeles Times' Reynolds gets this money quote from White House-channeling adviser Leonard Leo: LINK

"'I think the Democrats have decided that their strategy is going to be to keep the margin of victory as low as possible to condition the environment for a big fight on the next nomination,' Leo said. 'The [White House] response is very simple: to nominate whoever we want in the future, because Democrats will oppose whoever we nominate.'"

The Washington Post's ed board writes Democrats will come to regret Harry Reid saying: "The President is not entitled to very much deference in staffing the third branch of government, the judiciary," given that the country only has one president at a time. LINK

"The hysteria of the Democratic Left is understandable. It has lost confidence in its ability to compete in the political arena and sees a politicized judiciary as its only hope to advance its agenda," write Bork and Rivkin on the op-ed page of the Nation's Newspaper. LINK

The O'Connor seat:

In an interview with the Associated Press, First Lady Laura Bush reasserted her desire to see a woman replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court. LINK

"'It's important to have women in those jobs, just like I think it's important for women to be in every field in our country,' Mrs. Bush told The Associated Press in an interview. 'I know there are qualified women that are in the pool of people who are being looked at.'"

Putting great stock in the First Lady's influence, Emily Bazelon of Slate plays up Maureen Mahoney as a female Roberts and floats Harriet Miers as a potential nominee. LINK

Roll Call's Paul Kane reports that Reid signaled yesterday that "Bush would face a far stronger fight if he picked any of those nominees previously filibustered by Democrats in the 108th Congress — a potentially bad omen for lawyer Miguel Estrada and federal appellate Judges Priscilla Owens and Janice Rogers Brown, all of whom have been mentioned as potential nominees."

But if the Democrats oppose (and the GOP hangs tough), Reid's only meaningful opposition is the filibuster, which triggers the nuclear option, and if the GOP hangs tough . . .

Katrina: Bush strategy/response:

Since the New York Times no longer allows free links for its columnists' work, we urge you to seek out a hard copy and read every word of Tom Friedman's op-ed column today in which he argues for President Bush to reinvent himself in a Nixon-to-China kind of way.

Friedman writes, "Katrina deprived the Bush team of the energy source that propelled it forward for the last four years: 9/11 and the halo over the presidency that came with it. The events of 9/11 created deference in the U.S. public, and media, for the administration, which exploited it to the hilt to push an uncompassionate conservative agenda on tax cuts and runaway spending, on which it never could have gotten elected. That deference is over."

Tom, of course, has made this suggestion before (like Brownstein and the tax cuts), but Mr. Friedman has come to caveat these columns with the stark realization that it ain't gonna happen until pigs fly and play poker well.

Katrina: Big Casino budget politics:

The Washington Post's Shailagh Murray and Jim VandeHei have a must-read today on the ways in which Katrina's cost is testing GOP harmony. LINK

"Congressional Republicans from across the ideological spectrum yesterday rejected the White House's open-wallet approach to rebuilding the Gulf Coast, a sign that the lockstep GOP discipline that George W. Bush has enjoyed for most of his presidency is eroding on Capitol Hill."

"Trying to allay mounting concerns, White House budget director Joshua B. Bolten met with Republican senators for an hour after their regular Tuesday lunch. Senators emerged to say they were annoyed by the lack of concrete ideas for paying the Hurricane Katrina bill."

"'Very entertaining,' Sen. John McCain said sarcastically as he left the session. 'I haven't heard any specifics from the administration.'"

"'At least give us some idea' of how to cover the cost, said Sen. Conrad Burns, who is facing reelection in 2006. 'We owe that to the American taxpayer.'"

Carl Hulse delivers his own must-read story in the New York Times on "Operation Offset" including Rep. Tom DeLay's suggestion that deferring the Medicare prescription drug benefit is a non-starter and reopening the highway bill to get rid of some those earmarks won't be all that popular either. LINK

And check this out from the Treasury Secretary on the possibility of delaying the estate tax repeal and the making permanent of some Bush tax cuts:

"'I think it will push to the back burner some issues that otherwise would have been on the agenda now,' Mr. Snow said in a speech to the National Association of Federal Credit Unions."

The Wall Street Journal ed board gets tough on the White House and congressional Republicans, shouting from the Battery Park City rooftops for spending cuts now.

Roll Call's Ben Pershing reports that the Republican Study Committee's meeting with the leadership Tuesday came as some leaders had "grown concerned that the conservative group's high-profile push for spending offsets were making the party look bad."

Per the Washington Times' Stephen Dinan: "The top House Democrat said yesterday she would give up some specific transportation projects in her San Francisco district to help pay for Hurricane Katrina, but Majority Leader Tom DeLay said he doesn't think cutting projects in his district is a good idea." LINK

Katrina: Congress reacts:

The New York Times reports on Democratic efforts to use the Safavian arrest as an example of why an independent Katrina Commission is needed to investigate the government's response to the hurricane. LINK

"I suggest Colin Powell, Jack Welch or someone with similar logistical and private-sector background to help oversee the rebuilding effort and bring transparency to the process -- not red tape and bureaucracy," writes Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) on the Washington Times op-ed page. LINK

Katrina: politics and policy:

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank sketches the loss of message discipline in the wake of Katrina and includes: discordant Notes from Snow and DeLay on taxes, McCain and the White House on a reconstruction czar, Reid and Leahy on the meaning of Reid's announcement, and Brownback speculating that "we're going to be pulling troops out" of Iraq next year. LINK

"In some places in the country, mayors pay for big mistakes at election time. Mr. Nagin faces a primary election in February, and for now, the talk here is that he is not in big trouble, that he, like his city, was a victim of Washington and Ms. Blanco, whose reputation has suffered while his seems to be holding," writes Joyce Purnick in her New York Times look at how Mayor Nagin is holding up under the klieg lights. LINK

USA Today's Jill Lawrence writes that despite public support for doing more to fight poverty, politics, and the other spending priorities still stand in the way. And a certain son of a meeeeeel worker gets big play again. LINK

Karen Hughes:

In her fourth week on the job, Karen Hughes, in her new role as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, will leave this Saturday on her first "Listening Tour." Hughes will visit Cairo, Egypt; Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Ankara and Istanbul, Turkey, returning to Washington, DC on Thursday, Gordon Johndroe, the Director of Strategic Communications at State and a former Hughes aide who is pinch hitting on the public diplomacy front until Hughes is able to bring on more staff, tells ABC News' Jonathan Karl regarding arguably the visible leg of the Iron Triangle.

She plans meetings with Muslim clerics as well as representatives of other faiths. Hughes schedule also includes sessions with university and high school students, NGOs, and civil society reps and bilateral meetings with government officials. She plans to meet with embassy public diplomacy and public affairs staff at each stop to hear their take on issues and get their ideas.

The economy:

From our ABC News polling unit colleague, Dalia Sussman: "Economic pessimism spiked this week to its worst in more than 13 years, punctuating a steep five-week decline in consumer confidence that's been deepened by the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and $3 gas."

"Public ratings of current economic conditions are now their worst since May 2003. And more striking is the look ahead: Sixty percent of Americans now say the economy is getting worse, up a very steep 19 points from last month to the highest level of pessimism since December 1991."

The New York Times Edmund Andrews leads his Federal Reserve coverage thusly: "Saying that Hurricane Katrina was unlikely to pose a 'persistent threat' to the economy, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Tuesday for the 11th time in a row and signaled that more increases were on the way." LINK

The politics of Iraq:

The AP Notes the "sobering milepost" passed of 1,900 U.S. service members killed in Iraq, and a new AP-Ipsos poll showing that two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. is spending too much in Iraq, and that the money is not being spent wisely. LINK

Dean's Democrats:

The Democratic National Committee filed its September report covering the month of August. "The committee reports $2.9 million in receipts and $4.2 million in disbursements. Cash on hand totals $7.8 million," reports politicalmoneyline.com.

Ethics:

David Safavian, the Bush Administration official arrested Monday, "initially failed to disclose lobbying work he had done for several controversial foreign clients when he went before a Senate panel last year," the Washington Post's Schmidt and Smith report. LINK

2008: Democrats:

Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle is headlining the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa this November. Which means? Nothing, according to his aides. Top Daschle adviser Steve Hildebrand tells the Des Moines Register that while devotees approach Daschle every day asking him to run, "the likelihood of him running for president isn't great at all." LINK

On the same day he was announced as the keynote speaker, however, Daschle registered his new Section 527 account with the I.R.S. According to politicalmoneyline.com, "New Leadership for America Non-Federal Acct will 'raise funds and make contributions to candidates for federal and non-federal office.' Former Sen. Daschle is the Chairman and President. Steve Hildebrand is Vice president and a director."

(Note Note: yes, it is the same "Steve Hildebrand.")

Per the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, however: Hildebrand said that the chance of Daschle running for President is "probably pretty low," but he would not rule it out. LINK

Gov. Bill Richardson and Mexican Gov. Jose Reyes Baeza bulldozed 31 buildings along the U.S - Mexico border yesterday in Las Chepas, a village well known for illegal smuggling. LINK

2008: Republicans:

Dr./Leader/Sen. Bill Frist, a "a potential presidential candidate in 2008, sold all his stock in his family's hospital corporation about two weeks before it issued a disappointing earnings report and the price fell nearly 15 percent." LINK

Per the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza: Fifty members of the Greenville and Spartanburg chambers of commerce heard speeches from four potential presidential candidates while in DC from South Carolina recently: McCain, Gingrich, Frist and Bayh all spoke to the group. LINK

"Angry over what he considers a breach of Senate courtesy by GOP leaders, Sen. John McCain has teamed with Democrats and centrist Republicans to force the leaders to back down on an effort to undermine fundraising limits he helped make law in 2002," The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports. LINK

Bloomberg's Johnston and Dodge look at Congressman Tancredo's (R-USA) right-leaning populist campaign and have detail on his "horrible" relationship with Karl Rove.

"They haven't spoken since a 2002 argument that was triggered when Tancredo told the Washington Times that Congress and Bush would be responsible for a new terrorist attack because of insufficient border security. Tancredo said he got a call from Rove on his cell phone the next morning, and during the 30-minute drive from Tancredo's home in Alexandria, Virginia, to his Capitol Hill office Rove called him a `traitor' and told him never again to `darken the doorstep of the White House.'

``I said `I don't remember the welcome mat ever being out for me,''' Tancredo recalled. ``Karl is not a pleasant person to deal with.''

Tancredo said that while he has attended White House Christmas parties -- because his wife ``loves to do that'' -- he has otherwise been all but cut off from the White House since the argument with Rove. LINK

The New York Post editorial board slams both Gov. Pataki (and Attorney General Elliott Spitzer) for their response to Medicaid fraud in New York. LINK

Social Security:

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, tells the Des Moines Register that Social Security reform will have to wait until 2006. Grassley acknowledges tackling the issue in an election year will be "very difficult." LINK

2005:

From Pat Healy's front page look at Michael Bloomberg's attempts to distance himself from President Bush and national Republicans: LINK

"Mr. Bloomberg has made new strategic choices, taking unusual steps to distance himself from his own Republican Party while choosing not to engage an energized Mr. Ferrer."

As Healy previewed, the Quinnipiac University poll out this morning shows Bloomberg with a 14 point lead over Ferrer (52 percent to 38 percent). Most observers expect that to tighten quite a bit and will keep their eyes on these cross-tabs from Qunnipiac:

"Democrats back Ferrer 49 - 42 percent, while Republicans go with the Mayor 82 - 15 percent and independent voters back Bloomberg 69 - 24 percent. Mayor Bloomberg gets 67 percent of white likely voters, 39 percent of blacks and 31 percent of Hispanics. Ferrer gets 28 percent of white likely voters, 46 percent of blacks and 57 percent of Hispanic voters."

Joel Klotkin delivers a New York Times op-ed piece about the negative impact urban liberalism (as exemplified by Fernando Ferrer in Klotkin's view) has on the Democratic Party's chances for success. A must-read. LINK

The New York Times' David Chen on the Corzine/Forrester debate: "The one-hour debate provided a tighter and more intimate compendium of the kind of harsh rhetoric that has characterized the race since the beginning of the summer. But instead of dwelling mostly on the questions of personal ethics that have dominated the race so far, most of the discussion on Tuesday concerned policy issues on subjects from pensions to stem cell research to gay marriage" LINK

And here's the punchy one-liner of the evening courtesy of Mr. Forrester: "And he may have delivered the most memorable line of the night when he dismissed claims by Mr. Corzine that he had supported tax reductions more than 70 times since being elected to the United States Senate in 2000. 'If Mr. Corzine is trying to characterize himself a tax cutter, Golan Cipel is a homeland security expert,' Mr. Forrester said . . . "

Eagle-eyed Josh Benson writes in the New York Times of a Democrat featured in a Doug Forrester ad who may not have been the best choice for anti-corruption message. LINK

2006:

"Congressional Democratic leaders are in serious talks with labor unions and other activists about replicating the model used to fight President Bush's Social Security proposal, using an 'inside-outside' approach on a handful of issues to put Republicans on the defensive through Election Day 2006," reports Roll Call's Paul Kane on the effort to take the labor backed "Americans United" beyond the tight focus of Social Security as the leader in 2006 strategy and messaging.

Two DSCC research staffers have resigned in light of a federal investigation into whether they obtained Michael Steele's credit report illegally. LINK

The Clintons of Chappaqua:

Ben Smith and Jessica Bruder of the New York Observer take a look at Sen. Clinton's wonky role at the Clinton Global Initiative and don't miss the casting of the former first couple as Mozart and Salieri. LINK

The New York Post picks up the Fox interview, with George H.W. Bush bringing 2008 into the squabble over 42's criticism of 43's handling of Katrina. "Let me put it this way -- if Hillary runs, he might get a little back," said Bush of his fundraising partner's comments this weekend. LINK

New Hampshire:

Democratic Gov. John Lynch re-appointed Attorney General Kelly Ayotte for her first full term, praising her as smart and straight-talking. Lynch also praised Ayotte's work on the environment and school-funding, though the Union-Leader Notes that she and Lynch diverged on her decision to defend the state's partial-birth abortion law at the Supreme Court. LINK

Manchester voters handed incumbent Mayor Robert Baines a tidy victory over his challenger Frank Guinta in yesterday's primary. Now onto the general election between the two. LINK

The Schwarzenegger Era:

Schwarzenegger wants President Bush to stay away from special election campaigning in California. "In the next two months, it would be better if we just do the fundraising," Schwarzenegger said in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle. LINK

House of Labor:

Harold Meyerson on poison pills. LINK

Bush Administration:

The Los Angeles Times has a story about the Deputy AG nominee, Tyco, Abramoff, and Karl Rove. Connect the dots if you can, Huffington-style!!! LINK

"A high-ranking Medicare officer, whose medical license was suspended because he falsified documents concerning his continuing education, was reassigned to another government agency, officials said Tuesday," reports the Associated Press. LINK

Politics:

The Air Force has offered a $600,000 settlement for damage caused by two Air Force support planes to a Las Cruces, NM runway during a presidential campaign stop in the Land of Enchantment last year, reports the New York Times. LINK

The Los Angeles Times ed board adds its own layer of dust to the Baker-Carter election reform report. LINK

Roasting Rahm Emanuel:

Several of Washington's biggest names turned out last night to roast Rep. Rahm Emanuel. The roast was held to benefit CURE, Citizens United to Cure Epilepsy, a non-profit organization headed by Susan Axelrod, the wife of Democratic media consultant David Axelrod. LINK

The Googling monkeys held a secret ballot after last night's event, and here, in reverse order, are our picks for the top six barbs of the night:

6. After ticking off the highlights of Emanuel's work as a Clinton White House adviser (i.e., signing the Brady Bill, passing NAFTA, engineering the Arafat-Rabin handshake), Paul Begala, the evening's emcee, said that all of the above meant that "history will now record" Emanuel "as someone who took guns away from law-abiding citizens, shipped jobs to Mexico and brought a terrorist to the White House South Lawn."

5. Believing that the "hawkishness on the part of Democrats and liberals will continue to grow" as we move closer to 2008, the New York Times' Bill Safire suggested a possible bumper sticker if "a couple of guys from Illinois" make it onto the Democratic ticket together: "Invade & Bomb with Hillary & Rahm."

4. To give the audience a sense of how much money Emanuel made as an investment banker after leaving the White House, former Commerce Secretary Bill Daley said: "In 2002, Kerry proposed to him."

3. More Daley on Emanuel: "He's telegenic. He's pro-stem cell research. . . . So, basically, he's Ronald Reagan with a bris."

2. Even more Daley: "The only thing that stands between us and the White House in 2008 is Bob Shrum."

1. Sen. Hillary Clinton said she was familiar with Emanuel's reputation as abrasive and "just a little bit feminine." She said, however, that she didn't much mind. "That's how Fox News describes me," she said.

Blizzard of Lies: Safire and Clinton Set the Record Straight:

At last night's roast, Bill Safire and Hillary Clinton showed that they could play nice.

Back in 1996, Safire wrote in his New York Times column: "Americans of all political persuasions are coming to the sad realization that our First Lady -- a woman of undoubted talents who was a role model for many in her generation -- is a congenital liar."

Mike McCurry, the White House spokesman at the time, responded to Safire's column by saying: "The President, if he were not the President, would have delivered a more forceful response to that on the bridge of Mr. Safire's nose."

At last night's event, Safire recycled his joke that what he meant to write was that Hillary Clinton was a "congenial lawyer."

When the former First Lady took the podium, she said that what her husband really thought was: "what pathetic prose."

The delivery of the attack on Safire's cherished talent, as well as the accompanying icy glare, were (if not Emmy-award winning) certainly worthy of a statuette nomination. The crowd clearly scored the exchange a KO for Clinton, as apparently did Safire, who we're told went straight up to her after the event with everything but a white flag and conceded something to the effect of, "that was a really quick and impressive quip."