Democrats Positioned to Take House Majority
Oct. 30, 2006 — -- If you are the type to bet on politics and like to play it safe, place your wagers this week exactly the way you did last week: Democrats remain positioned to win control of the House of Representatives but fall just short of taking a majority in the Senate.
That continues to be the most conservative wager, but there are other options and many unknowns.
Republicans could, perhaps, do better than the national polling currently indicates. They have generated some controversies in the media that have served to rally the conservative base that largely carried them to victories in 2002 and 2004.
They have seen at least some of their endangered incumbents stabilize and even recover in the polls, while at the same time they have damaged a number of Democratic candidates with negative messages.
Republicans continue to express optimism about the strength of their get-out-the-vote machinery. And President Bush's chief political strategist Karl Rove still has such a psychic grip on many Democratic politicians and strategists that, until Election Day comes, they will be holding their collective breath and looking over their shoulders in anticipation of October (or November) surprises.
Democrats, on the other hand, may end up riding a wave that would give them both a substantial majority in the House -- perhaps a win of more than 30 seats, far greater than the 15 seats they need to net for majority control -- and a narrow control of the Senate, winning precisely the six seats they need for control, and perhaps even one more.
Thus, the cautious political analyst should hold any extra cash in the wallet -- or under the mattress -- and wait for the real returns on Nov. 7.
Take These to the Political Bank
But not all is mysterious and imponderable in politics these days. In fact, here are 10 political realities you can take to the bank pretty much straight through 2008, no matter what the outcome of the midterm elections.
1. American politics will be fueled more by anger than optimism. Look at the country's political rhetoric -- from President Bush, the national party chairs, the TV and radio advertisements, and not least, Internet blogs and talk radio -- and you will see a bitterly polarized country that seems to favor the verbal bashing of heads, rather than the outstretching of hands.
When Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House leader who will become the speaker of the House if her party takes control, was reminded of apparently hostile and personal remarks she made about President Bush following her pledge to restore civility to Congress, she did not back down one bit.
And President Bush has become increasingly pointed in his criticisms of Democrats on the campaign trail.
2. The war in Iraq will be an albatross around the neck of Republicans for a long time. Even under the most aggressive proposals, American troops almost certainly will be on the ground in Iraq, as Bush has acknowledged, through the end of his presidency.
Even if there is a sudden and unexpected run of good luck and good news, the already incurred costs of human life and financial expense will be political problems for the Republicans for months, and likely years, to come.
3. The Democratic Party can't decide whether it wants to be a centrist party or a liberal one. Democrats have effectively defied conventional wisdom that in order to win back control of Congress, they would have to come up with a solid 2006 agenda of their own. Divided and unable to bridge their intraparty differences, they have nonetheless put themselves in a position to win the majority with no consensus or clarity on issues like Iraq, health care and taxes.
A Democratic victory on Nov. 7 is sure to be read by party centrists as an indication that more conservative candidates and mostly cautious rhetoric accounted for their wins, while liberals will suggest that painting an ideological contrast with Bush is the way to win legislative battles in 2007 and the presidency in 2008.
4. The Right still is far better at using new media than the Left. Despite efforts to compete on the battlefields of talk radio, the Internet and cable TV, the Democratic Party and liberals still have not caught up to their conservative counterparts in manipulating these increasingly influential media to impact politics.
There is no liberal equivalent of radio hosts Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, of Matt Drudge and his drudgereport.com, or of the Fox News Channel, in terms of audience size or ability to influence what gets covered by the Old Media war horses -- the broadcast networks, newsweeklies, and major national newspapers.
5. Legislative achievement on tough issues requires bipartisan consensus. With Republicans having failed to pass immigration reform, tax reform, Medicare reform, Social Security reform, or major deficit reduction measures with full party control, political strategists of all stripes believe that some sort of let's-all-join-hands-and-jump-off-the-bridge ethos will have to prevail in 2007 if major legislative action regarding the nation's domestic challenges will be signed into law.
6. Bill Clinton is eager to play and will play a huge role in the Democratic Party and American politics. The former president's popularity remains sky high, allowing him to build huge crowds, raise money, and impact elections almost anywhere in the country.
With the controversies of his presidency receding into the past, and Bush's wrong track numbers escalating in the glare of the present, Clinton's image has been buffed and polished, if polls are to be believed. Whether his wife, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, runs for the presidency or not, Clinton clearly intends to be a major force in politics for a good long time, to the benefit of his party.
7. President Bush does not have an automatic place within the Republican Party. As Bush's political standing has declined, his lame duck status and postpresidency path seem to be on a trajectory the opposite of Clinton's. To be sure, he is still the most potent fundraiser in the history of American politics. And he can fire up some members of the conservative movement.
But his governing and political strategy of reaching out to the conservative movement has geographically circumscribed where he can be effective, and additionally, he has disappointed those same supporters on some signal economic and social issues. Even if Republicans find a way to keep control of Congress, strategists working for possible 2008 Republican presidential candidates are already beginning to chart their own courses, and they seem to be scarcely influenced by, or feel fear of, the incumbent.
8. Barack Obama will be treated like a rock star by the press, the Democratic Party, and the public at large. It is the biggest cliche in politics to refer to a candidate who gets a hyperexuberant reception as a "rock star."
Clinton, and to a slightly lesser degree, Bush, have been described as such for years, ad nauseam. But Obama already has amassed a teetering stack of press clippings that include the hackneyed phase, and more are on the way. Someday, he will get the kind of scrutiny that most politicians of his wattage receive, but it appears that day is a long way off.
His exceptional charisma, graceful appeal and good story will hold the tougher analysis at bay for at least a while.
9. Red is Red and Blue is Blue. While a handful of states, perhaps as many as 10, seem to be trending slightly in one direction or the other, most of the states won twice by Bush for president, seem to be locked in place, as far as presidential politics is concerned. In a blowout, of course, there might be substantial shifting around, but if the 2008 presidential contest is close, look for the same small number of states to decide things as in 2000 and 2004.
10. Everybody hates the media. At a time when the United States is acidly divided along partisan lines, at first glance one area of possible consensus would seem to be the shared view, by both Right and Left, that the Old Media are horrible.
Politicians, strategists, activists, and bloggers and other opinionists on both sides see the Old Media as lazy, unprincipled and shallow. But the consensus breaks down there, with the Left viewing the Old Media as too corporate, too hard on Clinton, and too soft on Bush, particularly regarding the war in Iraq.
The Right looks at the same media organizations and sees persistent liberal bias against Republicans, and specifically on issues such as faith, guns, sexual orientation, taxes, and abortion.
American politics are going to be fundamentally changed by whatever happens on Nov. 7.
But many of the contours of the next two years are already fixed, playing out right now before our eyes.
Mark Halperin, the political director of ABC News, is co-author of "The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008" with John F. Harris of The Washington Post.Go to thewaytowin2008.com to find out more.