El-Sayed's Michigan primary win may put 2028 spotlight on Israel and Arab voices

Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, combined with the state's potentially early spot in the 2028 presidential nominating calendar, may further elevate Arab American voices within the Democratic Party, according to prominent members of the Democratic Party.

The state, home to almost 300,000 Arab Americans, could be in the early window of the nominating calendar for the second straight cycle.  South Carolina would be first, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and then Virginia, under the calendar tentatively approved by the Democratic National Committee leaders.

The move comes as Michigan -- and the Middle East and U.S. relationship with Israel -- continue to dominate debate inside the Democratic Party.

If El-Sayed, who campaigned on ending U.S. aid to Israel, wins the battleground state in November, it could position him to be an important voice for presidential contenders to have the support of in 2028.

After his primary win, El-Sayed was endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg rallied with him last Friday. Sen. Mark Kelly and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore have both been in touch with him, too, according to sources familiar.

While Michigan had an early spot in 2024, some on the left say the political landscape has shifted dramatically since 2024, when frustration over the Biden administration's handling of the Israel-Hamas war fueled the "Uncommitted" protest movement, which originated in Michigan. And, unlike the last presidential cycle, 2028 is set to be fiercely competitive with a number of Democrats already weighing a presidential bid.

Basim Elkarra, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations' political arm, said Michigan's spot -- a move from its traditional place being after Super Tuesday -- will ensure "our community be taken more seriously."

"What we expect in 2028 is that all these candidates recognize that without our community, there's no pathway to the White House," Elkarra said.

Potential contenders have started to articulate their positions on U.S. policy toward Israel. Rahm Emmanuel, former chief of staff to President Barack Obama, recently criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and said unconditional U.S. support of Israel should end.

"This is an issue that candidates are going to have to figure out not before Michigan, but before South Carolina," said James Zogby, a member of the DNC's Middle East working group. "They're going to have to figure it out before they even get in the mix."

Shifting views on Israel within the party

According to a July AP-NORC poll, 40% of Americans now say the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, roughly in line with 37% who said the same in early 2024 -- but now more Democrats say the U.S. is too supportive. A majority of Democrats, 58%, now say the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, up from 45% just two years ago.

In April, 40 of 47 Democrats voted to advance independent Sen. Bernie Sanders' resolution blocking military sales to Israel. In July, almost half of House Democrats supported a measure to eliminate U.S. aid to Israel. Both measures were ultimately defeated, but signal the party shifting away from near-unanimous support for Israel.

In 2024, the "Uncommitted" movement pushed for Georgia State Rep. Ruwa Romman to have a speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention, but the request that a Palestinian American address the convention was denied despite pushes by Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and then-Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani.

Romman told ABC News that "Gaza is not going to appear in the top five issues for most voters," but "it has become a sort of gut check to determine whether a candidate is willing to stand up to special interests to do the right thing for their constituents."

Former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison said the Michigan primary will test candidates' positions against the electorate.

"I don't think our candidates ignore voters," Harrison said. "The question is whether or not they just agree with the voter sentiment in those particular issues. … You'll have a number of diverse points of views, and they will get pressure tested by the voters."

Potential for finding common ground 

Curtis Hertel, Michigan Democratic Party state chair, argued that Michigan's demographic breadth, Detroit's Black population, a large Latino community and the state's high union density, means candidates will have to appeal to all communities. He cautioned against reducing the party's 2024 loss in the state to any single issue.

"If you look at the last election in Michigan, we bled in 79 out of 83 counties, and it wasn't any one place you can point to and say … that was the one issue that happened," Hertel said. "And that's why we're rebuilding across the state."

Andrew Lachman, a DNC member and former president of California Jewish Democrats, said any nominee will have to bridge communities together.

"If we can find a transformative leader, the way we found one with President Obama, for instance -- it's a potential opportunity to fine-tune messaging and find ways where there could be common ground," he said.