GOP doubts grow over Senate wins in Georgia and North Carolina
One Republican said the environment has never been this bad for GOP in Georgia.
Last year, Republicans had hoped to keep Democrats on their heels in Georgia and North Carolina's Senate races, and even flip the seat held by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
Now, just weeks away from the midterms and grappling with an expanding map of seats to defend, they face calls to divert resources from the two states won by President Donald Trump in 2024 into even redder states that have become more competitive amid Trump's low national approval ratings and the Iran war.
Political environment for Republicans
With 34 days until the midterm election, Trump's approval ratings continue to plummet. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Trump's approval rating is at a record low of 32%. At the beginning of his second term, almost half of Americans approved of Trump (47%).
Trump's decline in approval coincides with the ongoing Iran war and its economic implications, which are impacting down-ballot Republicans in several key races, including Senate candidates Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley of North Carolina. The two southern battlegrounds were initially top targets of both political parties, but now appear to be slipping away from Republicans as Democrats grow eager about their chances.
Although Trump won both North Carolina and Georgia in 2024, Georgia's Senate race is likely Democratic in the midterms while North Carolina is leaning Democratic, according to ABC News race ratings.
"Trump's numbers being sort of this never-ending limbo contest for how low they can go makes that all the harder for every Republican on the ballot," Doug Heye, a North Carolina GOP strategist and former communications director for the RNC, told ABC News in an interview.
A prominent Georgia Republican, who spoke to ABC News on condition of anonymity, echoed Heye's comments about the political environment candidates face.
"I have never seen an environment this bad for Republicans in Georgia," the Republican said.
Investment in other states
Some Republicans are calling for redirecting financial investments in Georgia and North Carolina, as recent polling and rankings of the Senate races show Democratic candidates holding a strong advantage.
And given the number of states Republicans need to win to either maintain or expand their majority -- such as Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine and Texas -- and the financial burden that will be, some Republicans are coming to the conclusion that the path to keep the Senate does not run through Georgia and North Carolina.
Outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis signaled that North Carolina was no longer worth the investment during an interview with CNN on Sunday, saying the priority is about keeping Republicans in the Senate majority.
"But the reality is, we have to keep a majority. We've got to make sure Susan Collins wins. We've got to focus on Alaska. We've got to focus on Ohio. But we've also got to focus on some of these states that are popping up as competitive," Tillis said.
Long time Republican Strategist Karl Rove offered a blunt assessment of Republicans chances of winning the Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina: "We're not going to win either one," Rove said Saturday during the Texas Tribune Festival.
Candidate quality
Another factor affecting Republicans' ability to compete in North Carolina and Georgia's Senate races is that both feature particularly strong Democratic candidates, both of whom remain popular in their states and have been prolific fundraisers.
North Carolina's Democratic Senate candidate, Roy Cooper, is a former two-term governor who has never lost an election since he first began running for public office in 1986 and was elected governor in 2016 and 2020 -- both years Trump won the state.
In Georgia, Ossoff carries an advantage as the incumbent and has been able to capture voters' attention on social media, as viral video clips of his campaign rallies where he bashes the Trump administration fuel speculation that he may be laying the groundwork for a potential bid for the White House in 2028. Ossoff has repeatedly rejected questions about his political ambitions.
Proximity to Trump
Given the political headwinds the GOP faces this cycle, some Republican candidates in tight races are distancing themselves from Trump -- but not Collins or Whatley. Both candidates held speaking spots at Republicans' midterm convention earlier this month, as other Republicans in tight races skipped the event.
As the former chair of the RNC and the president's handpicked candidate for North Carolina's Senate seat, Whatley has maintained his support for the president's war in Iran and defended the rocky economy under Trump. Whatley told reporters at a recent press conference that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is "first priority, full stop," and he told ABC News' Linsey Davis earlier this month that "inflation is down dramatically" under Trump.
Whatley has instead focused his attack ads against Cooper on crime, even as 46% of likely voters in North Carolina say that rising prices and affordability is the most important issue to them and just 8% say crime is, according to an AARP poll released earlier this week.
Similarly, Collins -- a self-proclaimed "MAGA warrior" on the campaign trail -- has leaned into his "Make America Great Again" base and support for Trump.
Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp endorsed Collins' opponent, Derek Dooley, in the GOP primary and runoff, arguing at the time that Georgia Republicans should nominate a member of their party who could appeal to more moderate voters to have the best shot at defeating Ossoff.
The campaigns have pushed back on the idea that they are losing national resources and attention, and maintain they have a path to victory in North Carolina and Georgia.
"We’re confident we will have the resources to get our message out to North Carolina voters and win," Whatley spokesperson DJ Griffin told ABC News.
Collins' campaign pointed to Senate Majority Leader John Thune's recent fundraising stop in Atlanta to show Republicans are still supporting him.
"We're grateful for the strong support we continue to see from Republicans. Leader Thune was just here in Georgia, and outside groups are still investing heavily in this race because they know what's at stake," Collins' campaign spokesperson Meyer Siegfried told ABC News.