Speaker Johnson's latest challenge: Funding Trump's war in Iran

As President Donald Trump tells Congress that he's reigniting military action in Iran, Speaker Mike Johnson is striving to advance legislation to pay for the president's 138-day war -- taking a procedural track that will rely strictly on GOP votes given overwhelming Democratic opposition to the conflict.

But with a razor-thin majority coupled with early signals of dissatisfaction and consternation throughout the House Republican Conference, Reconciliation 3.0 -- Republicans' third reconciliation bill this Congress -- could challenge Johnson's majority like never before or claim an important GOP victory before the midterm elections this fall.

What's budget reconciliation?

On Thursday, the House Budget Committee voted 20-14 on party-lines to advance the GOP budget resolution -- Johnson called the "SAVE and Protect Act" -- for Reconciliation 3.0, marking the first hurdle in the lengthy legislative process. The resolution now heads to the House floor.

Budget reconciliation is a legislative tool that enables Congress to pass partisan and even controversial bills that address issues such as taxes, mandatory spending and the debt limit by reducing the 60-vote threshold required for passage in the Senate to a simple majority. It’s typically used when one party has unified control of the House, Senate and White House -- as Republicans are positioned now -- and doesn’t require bipartisan cooperation across the aisle.

What's the plan?

House GOP leaders unveiled a budget blueprint on Wednesday for Reconciliation 3.0, calling for a $95 billion package to provide funding for defense and intelligence, farm aid and components of the elections overhaul effort, the SAVE America Act -- directing four committees to draft pieces of legislation that ultimately would be wrapped into one bill.

The blueprint would allow for up to $60 billion for military funding and up to $13 billion for intelligence costs -- totaling $73 billion to cover the Iran war as the Pentagon warns it's running out of money to conduct operations there. The plan also includes a long-shot bid to pass components of the SAVE America Act alongside $12 billion in aid for farmers. It did not instruct committees to come up with offsets to the cost of new spending.

The House is racing toward its final legislative week ahead of the five-week summer recess -- so GOP leaders are aiming at holding a vote on the budget resolution next week.

Speaker already facing backlash

Despite the full-steam-ahead approach from leadership, some House Republicans are expressing trepidation about the budget plan -- largely because it does not include spending cuts or pay-fors -- or corresponding savings to offset new spending.

"I think that a no-offset plan is dead on arrival," Republican Rep. Warren Davidson said. "Frankly, three of us would kill it, and so I think that's likely at this point."

Johnson can only afford to lose three GOP defections if all members are voting and present before his majority is upended.

Vice President JD Vance huddled behind closed doors on Wednesday to rally Republicans behind the emerging plan -- hoping that including provisions on election integrity is enough to calm tensions in the GOP conference over the bill's lack of pay-fors.

"What we're doing with this legislation is getting SAVE America through, and of course, getting some critical support to our troops and to our farmers,” the vice president told reporters after the meeting. "We decided to do this because we thought this was the best vehicle to accomplish those three things."

But Vance’s efforts did little to calm holdouts.

"I think the problem is there's no plan to pay for it, right?” Davidson added. "If it's a priority, then why isn't it a priority for us to say how are we going to pay for it?"

Another Budget Committee Republican, Rep. Lloyd Smucker, also says he wants to see budgetary offsets that correspond to new spending in the plan -- though he acknowledged the importance of the spending proposed by Republican leaders.

"I think there's a lot of us that would [like offsets], but we also think the priorities there are important," Smucker said.

A senior House GOP leadership aide explained why the plan does not include offsetting deficit reduction or spending cuts.

"It’s not necessarily a choice between this and nothing. It’s a choice between this and, you know, theoretically an even larger un-offset spending package, but that said, I think all our members, even our biggest fiscal hawks, recognize the importance of providing this funding," the leadership aide said.

Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley, who conferences with Republicans and whose support is calculated in the GOP's majority threshold, said he is "skeptical" of the budget plan because it cuts Democrats out of the process -- one said he believes should be bipartisan.

"It should really be done in a bipartisan way. So [I’m] disappointed this is where things are at," he said.

Republican Rep. Nancy Mace said in a social media post that the party should take Americans' "concerns seriously" or the "party will suffer the consequences."

“$95 billion in new deficit spending, no offsets, and not one provision to lower the cost of living," Mace wrote. "American families are feeling the pain of rising costs. Their American dream is getting further out of reach."

What about the Senate?

Not only are there concerns in the House, but several Senate Republicans have already poured cold water on the plan.

"If I see a reconciliation bill come from the House with another failed attempt to confuse this election, I will use every device I have available to slow down the wheels of government," GOP Sen. Thom Tillis said, alluding to the SAVE Act provisions favored by House Republicans that aim to address election integrity by incentivizing states to require citizenship to register to vote.

The Senate needs to adopt the same House budget resolution to unlock the process.

"Our national debt is a runaway train. The next reconciliation bill should be fully paid for," Sen. Bill Cassidy said in a post on X.