Parties Emphasize Turnout Efforts

Nov. 6, 2000 -- Despite waging the most expensive campaigns in history and spending countless hours stumping, George W. Bush and Al Gore both know the closest presidential race in a generation will come down to one question: Which party can get out the vote?

“I like what I feel, but we can take nothing for granted,” Bush, the Republican candidate, said today at a rally in Chattanooga, Tenn. “We’ve gotta be sure we work hard to turn out that vote!”

“They say it’s the closest election since John Kennedy beat Richard Nixon by an average of one vote per precinct,” said Gore, the Democratic nominee, at a rally in Philadelphia on Sunday. “I’d like each of you to get me one more vote in your precinct.”

And over the weekend, the vice president implored audiences at African-American churches to “get your souls to the polls.”

For all the talk this year about undecided voters and swing states, the fortunes of Gore and Bush may be decided by how much enthusiasm they can whip up among their own party faithful.

Indeed, with Gore trailing Bush by a few points in most polls with just two days left, the Democrats’ best chance of retaining the Oval Office may not come from anything their candidate says or does between now and Nov. 7, but by getting the rank-and-file to the ballot box on Election Day.

But ensuring a high turnout may be a particular problem for the Democrats. A recent ABCNEWS poll indicates they seem to have a less secure, less energized base than Bush and the GOP this year.

The survey, released Oct. 22, showed 84 percent of Bush backers saying they supported the GOP nominee strongly. But only 76 percent of Gore’s backers said the same of their candidate.

And 53 percent of Bush’s supporters claimed to be following the race very closely, while just 42 percent of Gore’s said the same.

Dems: We Know Our Voters

High turnout is traditionally thought to favor Democrats, who have more voters registered nationally than Republicans.

According to Laurie Moskowitz, director of the Democratic National Committee’s coordinated campaign efforts, the party will get voters to the polls through a turnout effort that includes 40 million to 50 million phone calls, 40 million pieces of direct mail, 50,000 volunteers on Election Day and 500,000 yard signs.

Democrats will also target voters with 20 million recorded phone calls from President Clinton and the Rev. Jesse Jackson at the close of the campaign — in addition to 30 million live calls from volunteers, 30 million e-mails, and even sound trucks going through urban neighborhoods urging people to vote.

“We know how to get our voters out and run Election-Day operations,” said Democratic strategist Michael Whouley during a conference call with reporters Thursday.

And although Gore has lagged behind Bush in the polls for most of the election, Whouley is insisting the rank-and-file will rally to the cause, especially in the Midwest.

“The Democrats know we have a lot on the line, and I think we’re going to have higher turnout in these battleground states than people believe,” said Whouley. “I think there’s going to be a surge on Election Day.”

Bush, GOP Increase Efforts

But Republicans, motivated to win back the White House and wary of repeating the lackluster get-out-the-vote effort they put forth in 1996, are responding in kind.

“It’s one thing to lead in the polls,” said Karl Rove, Bush’s chief strategist, on NBC’s Today show this morning. “It’s another thing to get all your supporters to thepolls and we’re working hard to do that.”

Among other things, the Bush campaign claims it is combining with the Republican Party in the final two weeks of the race to send out 110 million pieces of mail, place between 60 and 70 million phone calls, plant 1.2 million yard signs, and distribute 1.5 million bumper stickers.

The GOP is also using the Internet to mobilize voters. An e-mail sent by Jim Nicholson, chairman of the Republican National Committee, urges Republicans to vote and includes a list of talking points they can share with “at least one or two friends or acquaintances every day between now and Nov. 7.”

The message repeats a string of GOP charges about Gore’s credibility and states, “Gore has no executive experience … He has only stood back as part of the crowd and taken pot shots at those that are making a difference.”

New Methods, Same Goal

As in years past, voter-turnout efforts will include door-to-door canvassing, leafleting, and rallies. But both parties — and the interest groups supporting them — are using a variety of techniques.

Democrats and Republicans alike have increasingly come to rely on phone banks, with computers sending out recorded phone messages.

President Clinton has taped get-out-the-vote phone calls tailored to African-American and Hispanic audiences, two staunchly Democratic groups, as well as phone messages for state branches of the Democratic Party.

Independent interest groups are trying other innovations. The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People will try to encourage turnout through live Election Day radio broadcasts originating near polling places in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri.

Bus tours through swing states are also being conducted by a number of interest groups, including the NAACP, the AFL-CIO, and the National Rifle Association.

And although Gore has been reluctant to have President Clinton campaign on his behalf at any time during the election season, the Democrats are utilizing the president for some old-fashioned stumping in an effort to prod Democrats toward the polls.

In the last week, the president has stumped from coast to coast, speaking at rallies in California on Thursday and Friday and in New York City on Saturday.

Prominent party members are also spearheading minority turnout efforts. Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater and members of the Congressional Black Caucus have undertaken their own a get-out-the-vote tour, and leading Hispanic Democrats are concluding a “Su Voto Cuenta, Costa a Costa” (“Your vote counts, coast to coast”) tour.

In the 1996 presidential election, African-Americans constituted about 10 percent of all voters, and hispanics roughly 5 percent. Gore will need similar levels of participation to emerge as the victor on Nov. 7.

Looking for the Label

Still, it is often large interest groups which do the heavy lifting when it comes to turnout.

Gore, who has been endorsed by all the major labor organizations in the country, will be hoping union workers can give him a winning boost.

But an ABCNEWS tracking poll released Thursday indicates that unions, part of the traditional Democratic constituency, are a question mark this year for Gore.

The survey shows voters from union households supporting Gore by 61 percent to 33 percent.

But only 17 percent of the likely voters in the survey fit that description, while in the 1996 election, 23 percent of voters said they came from union households. A return to that level of participation by organized labor next Tuesday figures to help Gore.

To that end, the AFL-CIO bus tour stopped in Michigan on Wednesday, in the heart of America’s auto industry, and on Thursday former Texas Gov. Ann Richards headlined a United Auto Workers rally in Flint.

Hunting for Michigan Votes

Indeed, the two parties are mounting a vigorous voter turnout battle in Michigan, which is the nation’s sixth-biggest electoral college prize (18 votes) and is considered a bellweather of the national vote. State polls show the race to be a tossup.

Thursday, the NAACP filed a complaint with the Michigan attorney general and the federal Department of Justice, saying phone calls were being made, under the guise of the NAACP, urging citizens to vote for Bush.

Although both Republicans and Democrats have mounted multimillion-dollar voter turnout campaigns in Michigan, unions and outside groups figure to have an equally significant impact.

The NRA — which estimates it is pouring $20 million to $25 million into mobilizing voters this year, more than any other organization — has made the state a key part of its plans, telling constituents that Gore’s gun registration support will endanger their right to possess firearms.

NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre, who claims the organization’s Michigan membership has risen 36 percent in the last year, has called Michigan the “gateway to the presidency,” along with Ohio and Missouri.

Gore has become so wary of bringing up the issue in Michigan that in late-October stump speeches he felt compelled to tell his audiences that recreational hunters and sportsmen would not be affected by his views.

“It’s a shame that anyone would have to start with the blanket statement, ‘I don’t want to take your guns away,’” says Naomi Pace, communications director of the gun control group Handgun Control, Inc. “In Michigan and Pennsylvania he’s up against a $20 million disinformation campaign from the NRA.”

One Michigan GOP official says Gore’s reluctance to bring up the issue is a sign the NRA, between its mailings, leafleting, and rallies, is running a “quiet ground game” that has been “absolutely effective” in draining union support from the Democrats.

But Joe Sudbay, political director of Handgun Control, Inc., says widespread get-out-the-vote efforts by the NRA create a backlash that helps gun control proponents.

“Their efforts increase our turnout,” says Sudbay. “Their message works on a small sliver of the population. But everyone else hears it, too.”

Still, in a state that has voted within 1 percent of the national average in three of the last four presidential elections, Gore may yet need a late surge from the party faithful to come out on top.

“The Democrats have more room to make gains with respect to turnout,” says David Rhode, a professor of political science at Michigan State University. “But that doesn’t automatically mean that their efforts would be more successful than Republicans.’”

ABCNEWS Radio contributed to this report.