Kerry Wins Iowa by Avoiding Negative

Jan. 20, 2004 -- In a contest like the Iowa caucuses, with their unusual process and complicated formula for delegates in which turnout is king, it's often said that organization trumps momentum.

But not always.

With 98 percent of precincts reporting Monday night, Iowa's Democratic voters came out for Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts with 38 percent support, and gave Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina 32 percent.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean finished third with 18 percent, and Missouri's Rep. Dick Gephardt, who won the 1988 Iowa caucuses, finished fourth with 11 percent. The poor showing prompted Gephardt to leave the race today.

Kerry, who weeks ago had been all but written off as the alternative to Dean, much less the alternative to President Bush, pulled off a feat that for a moment at least looks vaguely like a phoenix rising from the ashes.

After a rough staff shakeup last fall and disappointing poll numbers in New Hampshire compared to Dean's, Kerry invested both people and money in Iowa and turned up with a force of supporters that even the Dean campaign acknowledged was widely underestimated.

And Kerry wasn't the only one with the big momentum. Edwards, who despite his considerable oratorical skills and ability to connect with voters hasn't cracked double-digits in most nationwide polls, revved up both voters and his ground game to come in second.

While Dean and Gephardt went after one another over Iowa's airwaves, Edwards refused to attack his opponents, and he swears that that positivism is the key to his last-minute surge. An endorsement by the Des Moines Register last week and an impressive showing in the newspaper's poll on Sunday only added to the perception — now reality — that Edwards was on a roll.

Newsmagazine cover boy Dean had been engaged in a tough fight against Gephardt in Iowa for months, pulling even with the presumptive Iowa front-runner and fueling an organization with young people willing to travel hundreds of miles to sleep in "Camp Dean" and bring on what the campaign called "The Perfect Storm."

What they hadn't counted on was the statements that Dean called candor but others called gaffes — from complaining that his rivals were picking on him too much, to announcing that he was no "pin cushion" for his rivals and would fight back.

Perhaps the most resonant was a recent campaign appearance where Dean told a Republican heckler to sit down — "You've had your say, now I'm going to have mine."

Taken as a whole, the gaffes threw Dean off his game, and some voters began to take a second look at their first choice to be the Democratic presidential nominee — and a first look at those they hadn't seen before.

Monday night was a disappointment for Gephardt, who enjoyed very solid union support, especially in the Hawkeye State, and early on was expected to take his name ID, his long career in Congress and the longer arms of union organizers and put together a victory.

Gephardt said in his post-caucus speech Monday that he'd support the Democratic nominee. Instead of flying to New Hampshire on Monday night, Gephardt headed home to St. Louis, where he formally withdrew his second bid for the presidency today. He also announced he would end his three-decade political career after completing his current congressional term.

Whereas only 60,000 Iowa Democrats turned up to caucus in 2000, this year the turnout expectation of the Iowa Democratic Party was right on the money — more than 120,000, including reports that some precinct locations ran out of registration forms.

But who caucused turned out to be just as interesting as how many.

According to entrance polls, 55 percent of caucus-goers were participating for the first time, and 58 percent of them identified themselves as liberals. Caucus-goers said the issues they care about most were the economy and jobs, followed by health care and Medicare.

And while Dean made his reputation as a candidate with his stance opposing the war in Iraq, Kerry fared just as well among anti-war caucus-goers, according to ABCNEWS' Polling Director Gary Langer.

And what about the large number of undecideds that got so much media attention in the days leading up to the caucus? The entrance poll showed them feeling the momentum — and breaking for Kerry and Edwards.

Of the 41 percent of caucus-goers who said they decided in the last week who they would support, 39 percent gave their initial preference to Kerry, 35 percent chose Edwards, 14 percent chose Dean and 6 percent chose Gephardt.

A lesson about the effects of negative ads on voters? Perhaps.

Kerry won the support of 71 percent of caucus-goers who said a candidate with "the right experience" was important to them, and he scored high on the electability scale, according to Langer. For his part, Edwards scored well with voters who were looking for a candidate who "cares about people like me."

Now, the smaller pack of candidates heads to the Granite State for the next big contest, the New Hampshire primary, on Jan. 27 — with Kerry looking to keep the big wheel rolling and Dean with something to prove — that he's the candidate who can turn a movement of enthusiastic supporters into tangible votes.