Races To Watch: Kansans on the Cusp

Nov. 6, 2006 — -- It was strange.

The political rally on the steps of the Kansas State Capitol building included lots of country music, including the ubiquitous strains of Lee Greenwood. There were plenty of American flags and a recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance. Speaker after speaker welcomed Republicans. The rally had all the hallmarks of a typical GOP election event.

Except this was a Democratic Party rally -- a rally specifically for Nancy Boyda, the Democratic Party challenger to veteran Republican Rep. Jim Ryun in Kansas' 2nd Congressional District.

It gets stranger. Boyda, it turns out, was a lifelong Republican until three years ago, when she concluded that the Kansas Republican Party had become too reactionary, too beholden to the religious right. Boyda's defection signaled a GOP at war with itself. Nine other former Republicans, including the onetime state chairman of the party, are running in the Kansas midterm elections as Democrats, just like Boyda is.

Light on Party Affiliation

When Boyda ran against Ryun in 2004, she was defeated by 15 percentage points. But her campaign then was heavily dependent on funding and direction from the Democratic National Committee. This time around, she decided to eschew the official party help -- the funding, the fliers and the ads -- and run a grass roots campaign light on party affiliation.

She told us it has worked, and that she has polling that shows the race as very close; some polls even have her leading.

"This does not surprise me. We had anticipated this possibility, so this is nothing new," Ryun said.

Boyda said she believes people are "ready for a change."

"The nation and Kansas are in a very, very different frame of mind than they were two years ago," she said.

"I think the Republican Party has lost touch with the American people," she added. "They don't get it."

And she thinks the main issue on voters' minds is how we could have "this much mismanagement in Iraq."

"It's not just the war," Ryun said. "It's everything that's going on. It's hard to pinpoint what it is exactly."

Others have less difficulty. They say Ryun's voting record may play a role. He's voted with the White House about 90 percent of the time. Great when the president is popular, but not so great when he is not.

About 1,000 supporters were on hand Sunday afternoon at Boyda's rally, at the same time that the Kansas City Chiefs were on television beating the St. Louis Rams.

"She couldn't have gotten this crowd two years ago," said Bob Beatty, a professor in Washburn University's political science department. "What's changed is more frustration over Iraq and more frustration with the Congress not getting things done."

Introductory speakers played Messrs. Bush and Ryun -- a "clone" of the president, said one.

Boyda's battle cry followed: "Have you had enough? Nothing will change until we change Congress."

The crowd loved it.

Competition in Red Districts

Still, it is shocking to see a competitive race here in one of the reddest states in the country. While the governor, Kathleen Sibelius, is a Democrat, in Kansas there are far more registered Republicans and independents than Democrats.

But on the ground in the 2nd District, it appears that dissatisfaction with the Republican congressman, Ryun, is remarkably widespread compared to previous campaigns. He is considered by many to be too close to social conservatives (like those who argued in favor of having creationism taught in Kansas public schools), and he is thought by many Kansans to be an accomplice in excessive deficit spending by Congress. Still others say Ryun has been a rubber stamp for whatever particular program Bush may have favored.

And speaking of the president, he flew into Topeka Sunday evening in something of a surprise visit. If Bush had to spend the last weekend of the election campaign stumping in once reliably red states like Kansas and, before Kansas, Nebraska, it indicates that Republicans may well be in as much trouble as the polls suggest.

"The president is coming here to save Jim Ryun," Ryan Branhall, a Topeka nurse, told The Associated Press at a Republican rally Sunday night at which the president was a headliner.

"I think it's necessary, because the Republicans have made some bad choices," Branhall said, referencing Iraq.

Ryun is now in danger of being swept aside in a wave of what the polls describe as voter dissatisfaction with incumbents. As recently as a month ago, no one gave Boyda a chance to defeat him, and Ryun insisted all along that he was well ahead in his race for reelection.

Last Minute Presidential Visit

When news spread that the president would be visiting the 2nd District in the campaign's final days, Ryun conceded the race was close and that he was in the market for some help. Local reporters said Ryun's campaign has been lackluster and more in tune with a challenger out of power than a decade-long incumbent.

"Ryun's always railing about the liberals in Washington," said Beatty. "But who are these liberals? The Republicans have been in charge."

Nor did it help that Ryun told reporters he didn't know disgraced Republican Rep. Mark Foley of Florida, though it later surfaced that Ryun and Foley once lived across the street from each other and had appeared jointly at party fundraisers in the past.

When the president arrived at the Kansas Expo Center, a crowd of 9,000 rose to its feet. Ryun introduced him in under a minute, before quickly moving to a chair at the back of the stage.

For his part, Bush was energized by the cheering crowd -- a stirring rebuttal to polls that say his national approval rating hovers no higher than 40 percent. Bush's speech was a familiar litany of taxes (the Democrats will raise them), terrorists (the Democrats don't understand them) and the troops (the Democrats don't support them.)

"Jim Ryun is a strong supporter of the United States military," Bush said as he rallied the crowd.

Pastor Jim Congdon of the Topeka Bible Church ministers to a decidedly conservative congregation that votes Republican in its politics. But Congdon has picked up the same national mood suggested by the polls.

"There's probably some nervousness, a lot of nervousness," Congdon said in an interview between Sunday services. "Any time there's a war that's dragged on … it's going to be tough for the incumbent party."

Asked what he saw as the biggest difference between today and two years ago, Congdon answered with one word: "expectations."