Why Trump is going to Republican-leaning states for midterm election rallies

With just weeks until the high-stakes midterm elections, President Donald Trump is set to headline rallies in Republican-favoring states this week -- with critics asking why the president is not instead focusing on key battleground states instead.

Some Republicans and experts say the goal is to boost midterm election turnout among Republican voters more generally who might have been less motivated to vote this year, and that this sort of travel to "safe" states during midterm years is not unprecedented. One expert said Trump's low national approval ratings could be seen as a risk -- and a reason he’s not stumping in more competitive areas.

Trump will join a "Midterm Rally" on Thursday, Oct. 1 in Durant, Oklahoma, and another in Mobile, Alabama on Friday, Oct. 2, according to announcements by the Republican National Committee last week.

Both rallies will be in congressional districts and states that appear to favor the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections.

Durant, for instance, is located in Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, which Trump won by more than 50 percentage points in 2024, according to data compiled by the Associated Press. This district, held by GOP Rep. Josh Brecheen, is also expected to be solidly Republican in the midterms, as are the statewide governor and Senate races, according to ABC News race ratings.

Mobile, meanwhile, was redrawn after mid-decade redistricting to be in Alabama's 1st Congressional District. The redrawn district, favoriting Republicans, would have voted for Trump in 2024 by around 40 points.

The 2nd Congressional District, which formerly included part of Mobile, is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, but now leans Republican post-redistricting, according to ABC News race ratings -- although Figures and his supporters plan to put up a fight to hold the seat. And the statewide Senate and governor races in Alabama are considered solid Republican, according to ABC News race ratings.

Trump will also be heading to states with more competitive races. Later in October, he is set to attend rallies in Ohio, Iowa and Nebraska -- states that voted for him in 2024 but are hosting competitive Senate races in 2026.

Trump, asked about the upcoming red-state campaign trips in the Oval Office on Monday, said "we have great people" in those races, and slammed the Democratic candidates.

But Democrats are arguing that Trump is going to red states like Alabama because Republicans are nervous.

"We're scaring the hell out of them," Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Sen. Doug Jones argued on MS NOW on Sunday. "They think ... Alabama's a firewall. Now they've got to protect a firewall. Well, it's not a firewall anymore."

But Republicans say that Trump's red state rallies will benefit the GOP more broadly.

An official with the RNC made the case to ABC News on Thursday that the rallies will help turnout in neighboring media markets in Texas and Florida. Republicans are trying to hold on to a Senate seat and governorships in both states.

Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst and the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, told ABC News that he found the Oklahoma and Alabama events to be "head-scratchers," and didn't buy the media market argument: "Why not just go to Texas and Florida?"

Separately, RNC National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre said in an appearance on Newsmax on Monday that the GOP has the "resources" and "record cash on hand, so the goal here is to drive people to the polls."

Georgia-based Republican strategist Ryan Mahoney told ABC News he also felt Trump's travel to red states was about turning out voters who otherwise might not show up. He added that some Republican-base voters may be disenchanted by Trump because of the higher cost of living -- an issue that has plagued the president, according to recent polling.

"There's no shortage of states, solid-red districts, solid-red states [that] are starting to suffer with Republican base voters who lack enthusiasm and motivation to get out and vote," Mahoney said.

Still, Mahoney said the GOP should be more focused on competitive races: "it's not a good look for Republicans."

Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University, told ABC News there's merit to the argument that Trump will turn out unmotivated GOP voters with these rallies.

"Trump has this ability, at least when he's on the ballot, to turn out some people who don't typically vote, to kind of remake the electorate to some extent," he said.

But Dallek also pointed to low national approval ratings for Trump -- just 33% of Americans approve of Trump and 67% disapprove, according to a recent CNN poll -- that he said have created a "toxic" brand for the president, which he said could be why he is not stumping in more competitive areas.

Kondik was also skeptical that Trump appearing "front and center" at rallies may be helpful for unmotivated GOP voters who have fallen out of the president's coalition.

From a historical perspective, however, Dallek pointed out that it's not unprecedented for a sitting president to head to "safe" territory during a midterms election cycle. He pointed to Barack Obama, who, for instance, attended rallies in 2010 in Los Angeles and Maryland, as well as George W. Bush in 2006 (who attended rallies in states such as Indiana and Georgia.

"[Trump] is following a pattern that many of his predecessors have followed, which is when they are unpopular in midterm elections, to the extent they travel, they go to their base," he said.

ABC News' Hannah Demissie, Benjamin Siegel and Gaby Vinick contributed to this report.