PCs Become Digital Hub

Jan. 14, 2002 -- The third age of the desktop PC has begun.

First, say the technologists, the PC was a productivity machine.

Then came Internet access, when desktop computers became gateways to the world.

Now, PCs are reaching out in a different direction — toward the other electronic devices consumers own.

Whether as a "creation station" to churn out home videos or a "digital hub" to manage music and movies, the PCs of the near future will focus on negotiating among digital cameras, camcorders, music players, televisions and the Web.

"The PC remains the most versatile device with the most horsepower to handle the mixing of digital media as a part of the digital lifestyle," said Tim Bajarin, president of technology research firm Creative Strategies and an ABCNEWS.com columnist.

Digital Hub

Major computer and software makers have all signed onto the idea of the PC as traffic cop for the digital devices in the home and data on the Internet.

Microsoft's Windows XP, the operating system that forms the core of most new computers' software workings, can download images from digital cameras with the press of a button.

Meanwhile, the newest PCs let users manipulate their media as never before. They can help turn digital photos into hardcover books; combine TV, radio, CD, DVD, and several portable audio formats; and network fax machines, printers, scanners, cameras, and other devices seamlessly.

Further into the future, technologists say, the PC will be an information clearinghouse for dozens of digital devices, for example serving up recipes to Internet-connected microwave ovens and sorting music files for a daily commute.

"Your PC filters out all the content and then automatically loads it into your car," said Brian Fravel, consumer and desktop marketing manager for computer chip maker Intel. "It may go out [onto the Internet], get stocks, news, possibly your favorite music files and have it all organized for you."

Handheld Challenge

Even in homes where new digital devices take over many of the PC's current functions, a desktop machine's power guarantees it will be the "creation station," experts say.

While handheld devices that can access the Internet over wireless networks may challenge the PC's pre-eminence in basic Web browsing, there's a strong demand for powerful PCs to polish the work of other devices—everything from digital music players to video and still cameras.

Use of photo-editing applications jumped 27 percent from January to October 2001, with 21.5 million Americans editing photos in October, according to research firm Jupiter Media Metrix. Recordable DVD drives are also starting to take off, with 3.5 million expected to be sold this year, according to Framingham, Mass.-based research firm IDC.

Winning Over Consumers

But while the new applications are arriving, computer makers have been battling to get consumers to buy their machines. Desktop PC sales dropped 30 percent from 2000 to 2001, according to Steve Baker, director of research at Port Washington, N.Y.-based market tracking firm NPD Intelect.

"People think of the main thing that they do with the PC as getting on the Internet and doing e-mail," he said. "Those don't tend to require the latest and greatest technology."

Analysts believe the general home PC market will shrink again this year, but at a slower pace — by 7 percent, according to Crawford Del Prete, senior vice president of research for IDC.

One reason is that users are not yet sharing pictures and movies in tremendous numbers, largely because those applications require high-speed networks that are in relatively few American homes. Meanwhile, entertainment companies still haven't come up with a way of distributing — and protecting — digital entertainment content that both they and consumers approve of.

"The network guys won't make the medium available, and the guys who own the material say they won't make the material available," said futurist David Pearce Snyder.

But given time, the demand for new applications will overcome the bottlenecks, Snyder said.

"If you look at the history of technological revolutions they haven't been one smooth, single, sweep."

That means despite today's delays, the future PC is on its way — and sooner or later, it is likely to change how people manage their information, images and digital devices.