Atlantic hurricane season peaks with no hurricanes as El Nino suppresses activity

Thursday is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but 2026 has yet to produce its first hurricane.

As potentially historic El Nino conditions continue to unfold across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, its fingerprints are evident in the lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic and the nonstop storms in the eastern Pacific.

As of Thursday morning, the Atlantic basin remained extremely quiet, with no development expected for at least the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

So far, the Atlantic hurricane season has produced five named storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. All five remained tropical storms.

With no hurricane development expected in the coming days, this season is likely to set a new record Saturday for the latest date in the satellite era (since 1966) without a hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin. This will surpass the previous record of Sept. 11, set by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

On average, the Atlantic basin typically sees eight named storms and three hurricanes by this point in the season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In contrast, back-to-back storms have churned across the eastern Pacific since July, with 14 named storms and five hurricanes so far in the eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The eastern Pacific basin typically sees 10 named storms and five hurricanes by this point in the season, on average.

Hawaii has dealt with impacts from multiple hurricanes in recent weeks, while Southern California continues to see dangerous surf from a tropical system churning several hundred miles offshore, the second such event to affect the region this season.

Above-average tropical activity in the eastern Pacific increases the risk of impacts from tropical systems across the Hawaiian Islands and also increases the likelihood of indirect impacts to the southwestern United States, such as more rain and more frequent elevated surf.

How El Nino influences hurricane season activity

While El Nino is only one of several key factors that influence tropical activity, the strong event is driving the lack of activity in the Atlantic and the back-to-back storms in the eastern Pacific.

El Nino conditions often suppress tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.

"El Nino increases vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, with the strongest signal over the Caribbean," said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. "This year, vertical wind shear has been very high over the Caribbean, much of the Gulf, and the deep tropical Atlantic."

So far, tropical activity has closely followed the pattern typically seen during stronger El Nino events.

"The activity in the Pacific is fairly similar to previous very strong El Nino events like 2015, and the quiet Atlantic is also similar to years like 1982, 1997, and 2015," said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.

Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds, according to forecasters.

While the Atlantic basin remains quiet, forecasters say the threat is not over and stress the importance of staying prepared in the months ahead.

"The season isn't over yet, so folks should stay vigilant in case a system does find a very narrow window to do something," Hazelton added.

On average, roughly 60% of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin typically occurs after Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The past two years have illustrated that powerful and destructive hurricanes can still occur well after the season's peak, with Hurricane Helene striking in late September and Hurricane Milton in early October 2024. Last year, Hurricane Melissa brought devastating impacts to Jamaica in late October.

The Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons continue through Nov. 30.

Potentially historic El Nino continues to unfold

NOAA remains highly confident there will be a very strong El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter seasons as it continues to strengthen through the end of the year.

NOAA's latest forecast says that between October and December, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of all previous El Nino events dating back to 1950. The current event ranks as the second strongest on record for this time of the year, behind 1997.

NOAA noted that even with an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Nino are greater, but they are not guaranteed.

El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average phase of the El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle where sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise and fall. The cooler-than-average phase is called La Nina, while near-average conditions are known as ENSO-neutral.

NOAA ranks the strength of El Nino events by measuring the sea surface temperature departure from average (anomaly) across this region, classifying events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.

While adjectives such as "super" and "extreme" are popular ways of describing the strength of an El Nino event on social media, NOAA and the WMO classify the strength as weak to moderate, strong, and very strong. The WMO reiterated in a recent statement that "the term [[super]] is not part of standardized operational classifications."