Bush Budget Heads for Battle in Divided Senate

W A S H I N G T O N, March 30, 2001 -- Reform trumped cynicism in the Senate this week, and the chamber is now poised to pass the most significant overhaul of campaign financing since 1974. Yet while Democrats and Republicans collaborated openly on the floor in recent days, behind closed doors they braced for next week's bitter partisan battle.

A nonbinding spending plan, which won't become law or resemble the budget Congress passes this fall, is up for debate next week and the political stakes could not be higher. The symbolic vote on a budget resolution not only provides a blueprint for how much the federal government will spend but represents Round One in the fight over President Bush's $1.6 trillion tax cut in the Senate.

"I think it's as much of a big test for Democrats as it is for Bush. The budget resolution — which implies that, though it doesn't guarantee — that he gets his tax cut, is a big deal," said Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del. "I think it matters, in that sense, politically. Because once someone breaks and votes for it we have a harder time getting them back on the reservation."

Biden added, "I can't think of any vote that I have cast in 28 years that has greater implications for the future of things I care about."

Split Decision

So far just one Democrat in the 50-50 Senate, Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, has said he will join with the GOP. But his defection is cancelled out by Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, who opposes Bush's tax cut and says he would vote with Democrats. Should current vote count estimates hold, the budget will prompt the first tie-breaking vote from Vice President Dick Cheney since he and Bush took office. Negotiations are under way all over Capitol Hill, as leaders from both parties scramble for votes, and President Bush continues telephoning Democrats he hopes to pick off.

"There's enormous pressure on people," said Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, ranking Democrat on the Budget Committee. "People are being offered deals. They not playing patty cake, this is fast ball."

Aside from the tax cut, Democrats object to the process on several grounds. First, they say they don't want to vote on a budget plan until they have seen the real plan from Bush, which is now expected on April 9, following the vote. Secondly, they were frustrated the Senate Budget Committee bypassed the process of drafting one with Democrats but instead took the matter straight to the leadership. And finally, they were surprised to learn that the Senate will take the budget the House passed last week and replace it with a GOP substitute.

Sen. Robert Byrd, D, W.Va., former majority leader who has served in the Senate for 42 years, gave an impassioned speech to Democrats Thursday, warning that the Senate and its traditions are being "trampled upon."

Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota, the Democratic leader, called on Bush to step in and help the Congress resolve the budget issues.

"I have seen nothing but division, divisive rhetoric, divisive tactics, partisan tone and an extraordinarily combative approach to resolving these issues," Daschle said, while Bush campaigned as a uniter and not a divider. "That is wrong, there's nothing uniting about that."

It would be a serious bruise for Bush to lose the support of nearly every Democrat on his first year's budget. But to inflict such injury, Daschle must convince wavering Democrats leaning toward the Bush tax cut — most up for reelection next year in states Bush won — that the process is unfair and a vote against the budget now doesn't preclude them from voting in support of the tax cut when it comes up in May.

Republican leaders have secured the votes of several wavering GOP senators in the last week, but acknowledge the vote is far too close.

"The tax cut is far easier to pass than the budget that includes it," said a top GOP leadership aide.

At a weekly lunch of Republican senators Tuesday, Cheney said he would be on hand at the Capitol for any tied votes. Knowing full well who the last potential defectors were, Cheney urged Republicans to do "the right thing for the country" and vote for the budget. After Cheney left, Chafee rose to explain why he continues to be opposed to the tax cut and the package overall. He asked his colleagues whether it would really be a good thing for the country to have a 51-50 vote, and his colleagues quickly said "yes."

Chasing Chafee

Leadership has been leaning on Chafee with charts, facts and figures for weeks in hopes of satisfying his concerns. Republicans tell Chafee the vote is a throw away he can give Bush without compromising his principles. Chafee's own governor, Lincoln Almond — a Bush friend — even weighed in with a call asking him to "take a look at it."

But Chafee hasn't yet been persuaded.

"This is an important time in history. We have an opportunity, with the surpluses, to do something to invest in our future," said Chafee. He added that he would like to see the two parties working together more.

"I would like to see the president working with Democrats and forging some kind of bipartisan compromise," he said. "The president pledged in his campaign, bipartisan cooperation, and I think that's what people are looking for."

One of the Democrats Bush is courting, Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., said he hoped Bush was listening to his concerns when the president called him last week.

Nelson walks a fine line, supporting Bush's tax cut, but wanting the president to move in the Democrats' direction on adequate spending in areas like defense and agriculture. He said he has not decided how he will vote next week.

"Let's face it. A lot is read into the vote next week and so I don't take it lightly," said Nelson.

But the former governor and new senator remains hopeful he can influence the president before the final tax cut vote is taken in May.

"This can be a good process as long as there's communication going both ways," he said. "If others feel similar to the way I feel they could make a call or have it be known they would like a call."

Chafee, however, worries that a close vote will prevent a true bipartisan debate over the tax cut next month.

"If they get 51 votes we won't have one," he said.