S. Dakota Senate Race Causes Stir

S P E A R F I S H, S.D., Oct. 22, 2002 -- South Dakota Republican Rep. John Thune is locked in a close race against the incumbent Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D. Never heard of them? Rest assured the White House has.

President Bush and his political honcho, Karl Rove, have staked a great deal on the performance of the 6-foot-5 Thune, a former state basketball favorite. They saw in him the potential to strip one very important seat from the grasp of the Democrats in Washington. And one seat is all it will take to swing control of the Senate back to the GOP.

Thune was not exactly chomping at the bit to make this race. Indeed, he had decided to run for governor of South Dakota; and had even moved his family back from Washington to re-establish his roots. But after a little White House persuasion, Thune for Goveror became Thune for Senator.

Arrayed against the Republicans are Tim Johnson and his most influential political ally — the state's more famous Democrat: Tom Daschle, the majority leader of the Senate.

Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 1996, ousting veteran Republican Larry Pressler. Today Johnson says that having two Democrats in the Senate is good for the state.

"That is a one-two punch in terms of clout for the state of South Dakota that frankly we've never had before," he said in a recent interview.

Recent polls suggest that that idea has a strong base of support.

"Something like 35 percent of the people say that they would rather vote for Johnson to keep Daschle as majority leader," said Patrick Lalley of the Sioux Falls Argus-Leader.

Thune sees it differently.

"You have Tom Daschle as the leader of the Democrats and you've got Tim Johnson," Thune said. "And you've essentially got a leader and a follower."

Bush vs. Daschle in 2004?

In fact, Daschle and Bush get talked about as much as those two other guys running for the office here. So much so that some believe this is really a proxy fight between Bush and Daschle that foreshadows a possible presidential contest two years hence.

"The president and Tom Daschle are very much involved in this race. And what is at stake is nothing less than control of the Congress," according to Lalley.

For that reason, the national parties, along with various interest groups, are pouring money into the state, making this race the most expensive in South Dakota history. The two candidates have already spent about $14 million.

And most of the money has gone into an avalanche of ads. Somebody calculated that the average South Dakotan has seen about 800 political commercials since January. And most of the voters we talked to said it was excessive, and excessively mean-spirited.

"The tenor of it has become a bit more strident in recent weeks," said Lalley, "and people don't like that."

What's surprising is that Thune and Johnson agree.

"The amount of advertising, the amount of money that's spent is insane for a state this size," said Thune.

"I think people are fed up with it," said Johnson. "They've had too much of this."

Playing Patriotism

The kinds of things voters are seeing on their television screens include Thune's paid ad that suggests Johnson is soft on Saddam. And Johnson's ad that Thune is in the pocket of big business.

Thune said the introduction of Saddam and al Qaeda into the mix was valid because of Johnson's votes against missile defense. "They're desperately trying to avoid talking about Sen. Johnson's record on defense on national security issues," Thune said.

But Johnson, the only member of Congress with a child on active military duty, has castigated Thune's campaign for suggesting he is unpatriotic. "They're clearly trying to tie me to those two threats to America while talking about an unrelated issue," said the senator.

Lalley of the Argus-Leader says the Saddam-al-Qaeda ad has not been particularly effective.

"It hasn't gone over real well," he said the other day. "I think there's been a lot of concern about politicizing the war." Besides, "you don't hear [much about] Iraq. And I think if you were to list the issues, Iraq would probably be fourth or fifth," Lalley explained.

The wild card in all of this could be the native American vote. While about 65,000 people on the reservations are eligible to vote in South Dakota, traditionally only 10,000 or so actually do. This time around, the Democrats have mounted a major push to register native Americans who tend mostly toward Democratic candidates.

But the registration effort is controversial. Currently, South Dakota's attorney general and the FBI are investigating charges that the Democrats have engaged in fraud, registering dead people or those who no longer reside on the reservation. The investigation is important to a race that both sides believe could be decided by fewer than 10,000 votes.

S. Dakotans Vote Reublican for President

And there is one more thing about South Dakota that has the two campaigns on edge. It is rock solid Republican in races for the presidency. George W. Bush won the state by 22 percentage points in 2000, and there are about 48,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

"There's no way a Democrat can win the state of South Dakota without Republican votes," said Lalley.

All good news for Thune? Not necessarily.

Because the other half of that statistic tells you that in the last 50 years worth of Senate races, South Dakota has elected more Democrats than Republicans.

This race is currently a toss-up.