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Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Republican from Colorado, in the House Chamber at the Capitol, Oct. 20, 2023.
Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Republican from Colorado, in the House Chamber at the Capitol, Oct. 20, 2023.
May 10
Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Latest 538 Headlines

May 10

Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet

After a terrible year, she's one win away from a House seat for life.
May 10
Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Republican from Colorado, in the House Chamber at the Capitol, Oct. 20, 2023.
May 09

What are the odds of a Trump win this November?

The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% — but does 538 agree?
May 09
VIDEO: What are the odds of a Trump win this November?
May 09

What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?

The 538 crew plays a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and puts their wisdom to the test.
May 09
VIDEO: What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?
May 09

Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of certain events this election season.
May 09
VIDEO: Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?
May 08

Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up

As a rural dog owner, I know Noem's story is far from normal.
May 08
Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem delivers remarks as she attends the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in Maryland, February 23, 2024.
May 08

Is it still the economy, stupid?

In a new series, we look back at political wisdom from past campaigns.
May 08
Welcome to the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, "Campaign Throwback."
May 06

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says poll shows he could beat Trump

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask if a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling.
May 06
VIDEO: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says poll shows he could beat Trump
May 06

Will Biden's handling of Gaza impact the 2024 election?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into how campus protests over the war in Gaza could shape Americans' votes this fall.
May 06
VIDEO: Will Biden's handling of Gaza impact the 2024 election?
May 06

Youth polling shows Israel-Hamas war is not a top issue for 2024 election

538 Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley breaks down which issues are most important to America’s youth.
May 06
VIDEO: Youth polling shows Israel-Hamas war is not a top issue for 2024 election
May 06

5 primaries to watch in Indiana

An indecisive Republican representative could lose renomination.
May 06
Rep. Victoria Spartz speaks during a Northern Hamilton County GOP Meeting, Apr. 22, 2024, in Sheridan, Ind.
May 03

Young people disapprove of Biden’s Israel policy. It may not mean much for November.

Despite campus protests, young people say other issues are more important.
May 03
Students march and rally on Columbia University campus in support of a protest encampment supporting Palestinians, despite a 2pm deadline issued by university officials to disband or face suspension, during the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in New York City, April 29, 2024.
May 03

538 algorithm groups House members by how they actually vote

538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton joins the podcast to break down a new algorithm built to cluster House members into “quiet caucuses” based on their voting trends.
May 03
VIDEO: 538 algorithm groups House members by how they actually vote
May 02

How voters view the economy depends on their politics — and personal lives

538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the podcast to discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02
VIDEO: How voters view the economy depends on their politics — and personal lives
May 02

Focus group shows voters are down on the economy

538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02
VIDEO: Focus group shows voters are down on the economy
May 02

How Trump's hush money trial is affecting his standing in the polls

538’s Galen Druke discusses how voters are reacting to the former president’s criminal trial.
May 02
538’s Galen Druke discusses how voters are reacting to the former president’s criminal trial.
May 02

How Trump's trial is (not) changing the polls

Plus, the latest polling on campus protests and marijuana legalization.
May 02
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls
May 01

The 8 types of Democrats and Republicans in the House

We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses.
May 01
A 538 analysis of voting records reveal when members of Congress don’t align with their formal caucuses
April 30

Voters don't like Biden's economy — but why?

In focus groups, we asked undecided voters about their views on the economy.
April 30
President Joe Biden applauds at the conclusion of the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, April 27, 2024, in Washington. D.C.
April 29

Judge has few options to address Trump’s alleged gag order violations

Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the latest developments in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29
VIDEO: Judge has few options to address Trump’s alleged gag order violations
April 29

Trump’s Jan. 6 trial might not start anytime soon

Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss how the Supreme Court could rule on presidential immunity.
April 29
VIDEO: Trump’s Jan. 6 trial might not start anytime soon
April 29

Who could testify at Trump’s trial this week?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth discusses what comes next in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29
VIDEO: Who could testify at Trump’s trial this week?
April 26

Democratic divisions over Israel aren't guaranteed to sink The Squad

But pro-Israel donors and personal scandals could present hurdles for some.
April 26
Rep. Summer Lee is the first of several members of The Squad to face off against a serious primary challenger.
April 25

538's new polling averages show close presidential race

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live!
April 25
VIDEO: 538's new polling averages show close presidential race
April 25

Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally

How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 25
How 538’s new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 25

How (most of) our polling averages work

An explanation of the methodology for most of 538's current polling averages.
April 25
538 goes through many steps to calculate its polling averages.
April 24

Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally

How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 24
How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 23

Are Mike Johnson’s days as House speaker numbered? | 538 Politics Podcast

After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan.
April 23
VIDEO: Are Mike Johnson’s days numbered?
April 22

4 House primaries to watch in Pennsylvania

The Keystone State will set the table for a slate of key elections this fall.
April 22
Summer Lee, now a Democratic representative from Pennsylvania, speaks to members of the media after voting at a polling location in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on May 17, 2022.
April 18

In Trump trial, jury selection is part politics | 538 Politics Podcast

The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial.
April 18
VIDEO: In Trump trial, jury selection is part politics
April 16

The political stakes of Trump's hush money trial

How this trial could impact the 2024 campaign.
April 16
VIDEO: The political stakes of Trump's hush money trial
April 11

What's up with the kids these days?

Young voters showed up for Biden in 2020. Will they in 2024?
April 11
VIDEO: What's up with the kids these days?
April 09

Tim Scott is the leading Trump VP contender

Plus, the solar eclipse polling you thought you knew.
April 09
VIDEO: Tim Scott is the leading Trump VP contender
April 04

Where will people commune in a godless America?

Religious decline has happened fast. It means fewer places for connection.
April 04
VIDEO: Where will people commune in a godless America?
April 02

The presidential election has become an unpopularity contest

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both underwater in the polls with the American public.
April 02
VIDEO: The presidential election has become an unpopularity contest
March 28

Are US politics undergoing a racial realignment? | 538 Politics Podcast

Some voters of color are challenging traditional voter alliances.
March 28
VIDEO: Are US politics undergoing a racial realignment?

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