Houthis' Yemen gains put control of strategic strait, key cities in focus
A conflict that had been largely frozen since 2022 now again seems fluid.
LONDON -- Yemen's 12-year-old civil war again exploded onto the front pages this month as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels swept down the country's west coast, seizing the port city of Mocha, driving farther south towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea and taking control of some 2,100 square miles of territory.
United Nations officials and NGOs have warned that the resurgence of fighting threatens to deepen a long-running humanitarian crisis. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said this week that 125,000 people have already been displaced by the latest round of conflict.
A conflict that had been largely frozen since 2022 now again seems fluid, with a collection of loosely united forces loyal to the Saudi-backed internationally-recognized government on the defensive and, supported by hundreds of Saudi airstrikes, scrambling to retain the coastal plains that abut the Bab el-Mandeb and rise to form the country's mountainous interior.
The coastal war
The Houthis have claimed to have taken control of strategic islands in the Red Sea -- most notably the Hanish Islands to the north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Perim Island at the southern entrance to the waterway. Houthi forces are now also trying to encircle the city of Taiz, the center of the southern Taiz Governorate.
The Bab el-Mandeb, which translates as "the gate of tears," appears to now have the Houthis as its gatekeepers, according to analysts. As the U.S.-Iranian conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drags on and oil prices continue to rise, the Houthis -- who are part of the Tehran-led "Axis of Resistance" bloc and who analysts say are armed, trained and funded by Iran -- are consolidating control over a second strategic regional strait and a key alternative conduit for maritime shipping avoiding the first.
The Bab el-Mandeb handles an estimated 10% to 12% of international maritime trade, according to analysts, with the Suez Canal at its northern end a vital conduit for global shipping.
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has made the Red Sea route even more important, especially for Saudi Arabia's oil export operations from coastal hubs like Yanbu, where the East-West Pipeline -- which was attacked by drones launched from Iraq earlier this month and badly damaged, prompting it to be taken out of service -- reaches the sea. Officials in Baghdad have launched an investigation into the attacks.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said last week that "maritime navigation is safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels," noting the continuation of a maritime blockade the Houthis announced against Saudi Arabia in July. But the Houthis have previously attacked shipping linked to the U.S., Israeli and other Western nations in the area, and could do so again.
The Houthi advances put the group in a position to disrupt regional shipping "more seriously," Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center think tank in Yemen, told ABC News.
"They claim that they are not going to, and they just want to target the Saudi ships. But who knows," she added. It is a clear threat to the freedom of navigation. And, also, targeting one country, even if it's just one country, will disturb the maritime situation in general."
President Donald Trump has dismissed concerns. "We've had discussions. The Houthis called us and they don't want to fight with us," he said last week. "They're letting most ships go through. There's just one country that they're not too happy with and we'll get that straightened out," he added.
For the Saudis -- a key U.S. regional ally that has been operating in Yemen since 2015 with extensive American logistical, diplomatic and intelligence backing -- the collapse of the Red Sea coastal front is "a complete disaster," al-Deen said, with Riyadh simultaneously facing damaging and embarrassing attacks on the East-West Pipeline and the port of Yanbu, where oil loading operations were suspended this week following Houthi attacks.
Riyadh is now directing hundreds of airstrikes on Houthi positions and territories, aiming to slow the group's advance and punish their headline-grabbing cross-border attacks on Saudi cities and oil infrastructure. But despite some reported counter-attacks, many analysts are skeptical that the loose coalition of pro-government forces will be able to roll the Houthis back.
Al-Deen suggested that recent events demand a sea change in Riyadh's strategy, which until now she said has been focused on staying out of the U.S.-Iran war and containing the Houthis in Yemen. "All of their actions are focused on how to avoid the war. And at the same time, they don't have another strategy. What if the war comes to you?" she asked.
Houthi consolidation and expansion
Analysts who spoke with ABC News suggested that the southern city of Taiz and the city of Marib, around 75 miles east of the Houthi-held capital Sanaa in the country's interior, are the most obvious Houthi ambitions beyond coastal consolidation.
The former is the center of the Taiz Governorate, which encompasses southeastern Yemen and the Red Sea coastline recently seized by the Houthis. The city serves as a logistical hub for the movement of people and supplies between the Houthi-held north and the southern coasts.
The city, traditionally a key cultural center, is also home to around 1 million people and in 2014 became a hub of anti-Houthi resistance after the rebel group seized the capital Sanaa.
Marib, meanwhile, is home to Yemen's largest and most lucrative gas and oil fields. Those resources have helped fund the Saudi-backed government's campaign against the Houthis, and its loss would be a severe blow to both its coffers and its legitimacy, analysts say.
Al-Deen said the prime Houthi goal will be to consolidate. "I don't think they want to gain victories on all of the fronts. Maybe Marib and Taiz are more important," she said. But these operations appear less about further gains and more "about distracting their enemies so that it will be very difficult for them to regroup," she added.
"To organize a counter attack is not impossible," al-Deen said of the government forces and their Saudi patrons. But to recover from the shock of recent defeats may take time, "And the window of time is not that big."
"If they don't organize a counter account attack within two weeks, I don't think they will be able to do it. Or they can do it, but it will be more difficult," she said.
Adam Clements, a former U.S. Army attaché for Yemen, told ABC News that the "fragmented" counter-Houthi forces face an uphill fight. "It's very, very difficult for even a trained military, well-resourced, to be able to fight uphill into some of the areas that they control," he said of the new Houthi positions.
Meanwhile, the Houthis will be buoyed by their capture of what Clements called "strategic terrain." He explained, "The Houthis do have a narrative and they want to gain other levers and other tools of power on the international stage and legitimacy. And there is always the domestic aspect of it as well."
Ultimately, according to the Crisis Group think tank's senior Yemen analyst, Ahmed Nagi, the Houthis "are seeking to take over the whole country." Already they hold many of the country's population centers, though the prime economic resources are in the east, Nagi said during a recent podcast.
Beyond the frontline in the southeast, sits Aden, the ancient port city that served as the capital of the independent nation of South Yemen from 1967 to 1990. There, the war stoked longtime secessionist sentiments, fronted chiefly by the Southern Transitional Council -- a bloc that until 2025 held sway in the south and was backed by the United Arab Emirates.
Sudden military gains by the STC in late 2025 prompted the Saudis to launch airstrikes on its forces, claim its disbanding, take control of STC-held areas and force the UAE's withdrawal from Yemen.
Amr al-Bidh, a senior STC official, told ABC News that many in the south fear a total collapse of government forces, while the Houthis may enter the southern regions at "any time -- and that's a concern."
Those forces still loyal to the secessionists are preparing, al-Bidh said, though acknowledged, "The STC is not what the STC used to be. We're not in full control of the south and Aden."
"If the Houthis come into the south, then definitely we have to defend," he said. "We will create hell for them. Even if they took Aden, it would be chaos, because people will resist."
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