Democrats Positioned to Take House Majority
Oct. 30, 2006 — -- If you are the type to bet on politics and like to play it safe, place your wagers this week exactly the way you did last week: Democrats remain positioned to win control of the House of Representatives but fall just short of taking a majority in the Senate.
That continues to be the most conservative wager, but there are other options and many unknowns.
Republicans could, perhaps, do better than the national polling currently indicates. They have generated some controversies in the media that have served to rally the conservative base that largely carried them to victories in 2002 and 2004.
They have seen at least some of their endangered incumbents stabilize and even recover in the polls, while at the same time they have damaged a number of Democratic candidates with negative messages.
Republicans continue to express optimism about the strength of their get-out-the-vote machinery. And President Bush's chief political strategist Karl Rove still has such a psychic grip on many Democratic politicians and strategists that, until Election Day comes, they will be holding their collective breath and looking over their shoulders in anticipation of October (or November) surprises.
Democrats, on the other hand, may end up riding a wave that would give them both a substantial majority in the House -- perhaps a win of more than 30 seats, far greater than the 15 seats they need to net for majority control -- and a narrow control of the Senate, winning precisely the six seats they need for control, and perhaps even one more.
Thus, the cautious political analyst should hold any extra cash in the wallet -- or under the mattress -- and wait for the real returns on Nov. 7.
But not all is mysterious and imponderable in politics these days. In fact, here are 10 political realities you can take to the bank pretty much straight through 2008, no matter what the outcome of the midterm elections.
1. American politics will be fueled more by anger than optimism. Look at the country's political rhetoric -- from President Bush, the national party chairs, the TV and radio advertisements, and not least, Internet blogs and talk radio -- and you will see a bitterly polarized country that seems to favor the verbal bashing of heads, rather than the outstretching of hands.
When Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House leader who will become the speaker of the House if her party takes control, was reminded of apparently hostile and personal remarks she made about President Bush following her pledge to restore civility to Congress, she did not back down one bit.
And President Bush has become increasingly pointed in his criticisms of Democrats on the campaign trail.
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